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More doom and gloom forecast for 4th quarter hog market

Another market analyst is predicting doom and gloom for hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Steve Malakowsky with Minnesota-based AgStar Financial says producers should have break-even or better prices the next few months.

“It looks like the market is going to push upwards into the second and third quarters of 2016; (producers) should see a $20 to $25 dollar profit.”

But Malakowsky tells Brownfield an oversupply of hogs will drive prices down double-digits by late October.

“Looking at the growth for 2016, according to USDA (growth) will be 2.2 percent increase for the year.  Unless there is a disease challenge in the fourth quarter, we’re going to have more hogs in 2016 than we had in 2015.”

Makakowsky says that will put pressure on the basis, and recommends producers look for profits this spring and summer to offset fourth quarter losses.