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Is a lower trend building in soy complex?

An analyst says despite recent highs, a lower trend could be building in the soybean complex.

Elaine Kub tells Brownfield strong exports have supported corn and bean futures in recent months.

“But I would argue against a bullish interpretation on these charts for soybeans.  They’ve posted three different highs in the past three months, and each of those highs has been progressively lower.  So I feel like we are seeing the seasonal pressure of a (huge) South American crop.”

Spring rallies have occurred the last three years, but Kub cautions anyone who’s banking on another one in 2017.

“We’re looking at these insurance prices now, averages from February, that are not terrible.  They’re certainly better than last year, especially in soybeans when you look at about a $10.20 level.  That’s not terrible, that’s a good opportunity to lock in some profits.  Pretty much everybody can make a profit there.”

She says there’s potential for volatility through March.

“And you would feel better if you had sold something or protected your downside to some extent.”

On the other hand, Kub says it would be unusual if highs were posted in February as opposed to April, May or June.