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Illinois ag economist offers his take on USDA yield estimates

Many farmers and market analysts are questioning the corn and soybean yield estimates in Thursday’s USDA crop production report. They were expecting lower yields than what the USDA forecast.

But University of Illinois ag economist Todd Hubbs tells Brownfield USDA’s track record on the August report is pretty good.

“I’m sort of hesitant to discount USDA’s yield projections from August. They’ve been pretty good the last two years,” Hubbs says. “Especially on corn, they’ve been within a bushel—their final yield estimate has been within a bushel the last two years.”

At the same time, Hubbs says his own yield model, based on crop condition ratings, does indicate smaller yields than USDA’s projections. He has corn at 167.6 compared to USDA’s 169.5, and soybeans at 47.9 compared to USDA’s 49.4.

AUDIO: Todd Hubbs, interviewed by Brownfield’s Julie Harker