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Economist says President’s agenda could have a small impact on ag trade

An ag economist says he doesn’t think President Trump’s trade agenda will have a big impact on US exports of agricultural goods.

Todd Hubbs with the University of Illinois says it is unlikely Mexico will turn away from US corn just to retaliate against the threats of reopening NAFTA.  “Our corn is the cheapest corn they can import,” he says.  “So the idea that Mexico would switch to Brazil or Argentinian corn means to me they would be paying more per ton for corn.  I don’t know why Mexican processors or Mexican consumers would want higher priced corn.”

As for China – Hubbs says, “Right now I think we’re going to go along like we normally do for exports and the market like it’s currently formulated.”  “We’re in competition with Brazil,” he says.  “And China needs soybeans.”

Economist Scott Irwin says the is more uncertainty coming from Rural America about how the President’s policies could impact ag.  “There’s a tremendous push back politically that is developing out of what I would call farm country,” he says.  “There are a lot of concerns expressed by people that are important to Trump’s political coalition about the importance of ag trade.”

Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.