Market News

Wheat pushes higher again, soybeans bounce back from early losses

Soybeans were mixed.  The market continues to monitor ongoing harvest in Brazil and Argentina’s harvest pace, which is expected to be quite large. The U.S. has been able to make more planting progress this week, with an update out on Monday.  But rains are starting to develop.  This week’s export sales were down sharply and the prior 4-week average.  Soybean meal was lower on Thursday, while soybean oil and crude oil were both higher.  The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers is out May 10th, with CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil on May 14th. 

Corn ended the day higher.  The crop continues to watch the advancement of Argentina’s harvest and the dry weather that is impacting the second-crop corn development in Brazil.  More rain is expected to cover much of the Corn Belt, which could hinder planting advancement for the remainder of the week.  But it looks like a planting window could open up next week.  Demand has been a bright spot and this week’s Export Sales report from the UDSA should a solid week for sales, which were also up 74% on the prior 4-week average.

The wheat complex was higher again on technical buying.  Weather concerns continue to be a factor as it appears the southwestern US plains is going to stay warm and dry.  That’s also the case for southern Russia and eastern Ukraine, while parts of Europe are excessively wet, and Canada has been dry (but a better chance of rain is in the forecast next week). The ongoing geopolitical issues in the Black Sea region also provide some price support. The USDA’s attaché in Egypt says it expects 2024/25 wheat imports to hit 11.22 million tons, compared to 11 million for 2023/24 because of a rising population and improved governmental access to foreign currency. Domestic production next marketing year is pegged at 9 million tons, compared to 8.87 million this marketing year.