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Soybeans, corn down, but still wary of weather

Soybeans were modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. The trade is watching the weather, expecting mixed conditions, with forecasts for better weather in eastern areas than in western areas. Last week’s rain helped some of the crop, but caused flooding in parts of the region. As of Sunday, the USDA says 61% of U.S. soybeans are in good to excellent shape, down 1% on the week, while 52% of the crop is blooming and 16% of beans have reached the pod setting stage, both a little ahead of their respective five year averages. The National Oilseed Processors Association reports member firms crushed 138.074 million bushels of soybeans in June, well below what analysts were expecting and down sharply on the year. Wire reports say China’s GDP grew at a greater than expected 6.9% in the second quarter, a good sign for export demand. Soybean meal and oil followed beans lower.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is also watching the weather and those forecasts for mostly dry conditions and hot temperatures in the Western Cornbelt. Rainfall totals in central and eastern areas of the region are expected to be mixed, but better than in western portions of the region. The first 2017 field based production estimate and prevent plant numbers are out in August. According to the USDA, 64% of U.S. corn is in good to excellent shape, down 1%, with 40% silking, compared to 47% typically this time of year. Export inspections were bullish, but sales have slowed as South American corn hits the market. The 2017/18 marketing year for corn starts September 1st. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was mixed. Minneapolis is supported by those forecasts for more drought or drought like conditions in parts of the northern Plains. Chicago and Kansas City are down on harvest and supply pressure. For winter wheat, 75% of the crop is harvested, compared to 73% on average. For spring wheat, 34% is in good to excellent condition, down 1% from last week, and 91% has headed, compared to 87% on average. World crop conditions generally look good. Taiwan is tendering for 105,150 tons of U.S. milling wheat and Jordan is in the market for 100,000 tons of milling wheat.

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