USDA slashes U.S. corn, soybean ending stocks

The USDA made month to month reductions for 2020/21 U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks projections on a combination of reduced production expectations and solid demand. The current marketing year started June 1st for wheat, September 1st for beans and corn, and October 1st for soybean products.

2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks came out at 877 million bushels, compared to 883 million in October and 1.028 billion for 2019/20. The USDA raised the food and feed use projections, putting domestic demand at 1.127 billion bushels and accounting for the month to month adjustment for carryout. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.70 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and up from the estimate of $4.58 in the previous marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks were reported at 1.702 billion bushels, compared to 2.167 million last month and 1.995 billion last marketing year. The USDA cut production by 215 million bushels, leaving the total supply at 16.527 billion bushels, and lowered feed and residual use to 5.7 billion bushels, for domestic use of 12.175 billion, but raised exports to 2.65 billion, for total use of 14.825 billion bushels, compared to the last guess of 14.575 billion. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4 per bushel, compared to $3.60 in October and $3.56 for 2019/20.

2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks were pegged at 190 million bushels, compared to 290 million a month ago and 523 million in the prior marketing year. The USDA lowered production by 98 million bushels to 4.170 billion, for total supply of 4.709 billion. Aside from minor changes to seed use and the residual, there were no other adjustments to demand, for total use of 4.519 billion bushels, up 3 million. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $10.40 per bushel, compared to $9.80 last month and $8.57 last marketing year. For the products, the USDA left biodiesel use unchanged and raised soybean oil ending stocks to 1.864 billion pounds, estimating the average 2020/21 farm price for soybean oil at $.345 per pound, compared to $.325 in October and $.2965 for 2019/20, while reducing soybean meal ending stocks to 350,000 short tons, with an average estimated 2020/21 farm price for bean meal at $355 per short ton, compared to $335 a month ago and $299.50 the marketing year before.

2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 320.45 million tons, down 1 million on the month, with production at 772.38 million tons, 700,000 lower. The USDA reduced production expectations for Argentina and the European Union, while raising outlooks for Russia and selected Middle East nations. Domestic feed use is seen at 137.13 million tons, compared to 134.6 million last month, and exports are estimated at 190.79 million tons, compared to 189.92 million a month ago.

2020/21 world corn ending stocks are pegged at 291.43 million tons, compared to 300.45 million the month before, with production of 1.145 billion tons, compared to 1.159 billion in the last report. The USDA cut expectations for the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and raised projections for South Africa and the European Union. Domestic feed use came out at 725.71 million tons, compared to 731.31 million in October, with exports of 184.77 million tons, compared to 184.47 million last month, including reductions for Russia and Ukraine against increases for the U.S. and South Africa. Corn imports by China are estimated at 13 million tons, compared to 7 million in the previous update.

2020/21 world soybean ending stocks are seen at 86.52 million tons, compared to 88.7 million in the prior report, with production of 362.64 million tons, compared to 368.47 million last month. The USDA lowered outlooks for the U.S. and Argentina. Domestic crush use is pegged at 320.89 million tons, compared to 322.42 million a month ago, with exports at 167.82 million tons, compared to 167.88 million in October, but with Argentina and Brazil both unchanged. Soybean imports by China were also unchanged at 100 million tons.

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