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USDA sees bigger winter wheat crop

The USDA has raised its estimate for the 2021 U.S. winter wheat crop.

Production is now seen at 1.309 billion bushels, up 26 million from May, on a more than 1 bushel per acre rise in the average yield estimate, expecting record yields in Missouri and Montana. Average yield is expected to be 53.2 bushels per acre, compared to 52.1 a month ago and 50.9 a year ago, with 2021 harvested area of at 24.612 million acres, compared to 23.024 million in 2020.

If realized, that would be up 138 million bushels from 2020, including a 6% jump in hard red winter to 771.467 million bushels and a 1% increase for soft red winter at 335.451 million, which canceled out a 8% decrease for white winter wheat to a combined 202.082 million bushels.

The U.S. winter wheat harvest is underway in most major growing areas.

Comparisons for applicable Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 6.12 million bushels, compared to 4.125 million in 2020; average yield of 51 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 55 a year ago; harvested area of 120,000 acres, compared to 75,000 last year

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 48.75 million bushels, compared to 35.36 million in 2020; average yield of 75 bushels per acre, compared to 74 a month ago and 68 a year ago; harvested area of 650,000 acres, compared to 520,000 last year

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 22.8 million bushels, compared to 17.5 million in 2020, average yield of 76 bushels per acre, compared to 74 a month ago and 70 a year ago; harvested area of 300,000 acres, compared to 250,000 last year

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 41.6 million bushels, compared to 33.75 million in 2020; average yield of 80 bushels per acre, compared to 82 a month ago and 75 a year ago; harvested area of 520,000 acres, compared to 450,000 last year

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 33.6 million bushels, compared to 22.94 million in 2020; record average yield of 70 bushels per acre, compared to 68 a month ago and 62 a year ago; harvested area of 480,000 acres, compared to 370,000 last year

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 39.78 million bushels, compared to 34.03 million in 2020; average yield of 51 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a month ago and 41 a year ago; harvested area of 780,000 acres, compared to 830,000 last year

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 41.34 million bushels, compared to 34.79 million in 2020; average yield of 78 bushels per acre, compared to 75 a month ago and 71 a year ago; harvested area of 530,000 acres, compared to 490,000 last year

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 34.65 million bushels, compared to 34.8 million in 2020; average yield of 55 bushels per acre, compared to 54 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 630,000 acres, compared to 600,000 last year

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 22.08 million bushels, compared to 13.57 million in 2020; average yield of 69 bushels per acre, compared to 70 a month ago and 59 a year ago; harvested area of 320,000 acres, compared to 230,000 last year

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 15.62 million bushels, compared to 8.625 million in 2020; average yield of 71 bushels per acre, compared to 70 a month ago and 69 a year ago; harvested area of 220,000 acres, compared to 125,000 last year

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