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USDA sees bigger wheat crop in 2023

The USDA is projecting a larger wheat crop in 2023.

The combined crop is seen at 1.812 billion bushels, 10% above 2022 with higher planted and harvested area and average yield estimates. This year planted area was 49.575 million acres with harvested area of 37.272 million and an average yield of 48.6 bushels per acre. In 2022, planted area was 45.768 million bushels with harvested area of 35.485 million and an average yield of 46.5 bushels per acre.

That expected annual total includes 1.248 billion bushels of winter wheat, a jump of 13%, and 504.9 million bushels of spring wheat, 5% more than a year ago. By type, for winter wheat, the USDA has hard red winter at 601.017 million bushels, soft red winter at 449.017 million, and combined white winter at 197.714 million bushels. For spring wheat, hard red production is seen at 468.068 million bushels, with white spring at a combined 36.832 million bushels.

The larger winter wheat crop comes despite ongoing drought in much of the central and southern U.S. Plains, with the USDA projecting record yields for several soft red winter states in the eastern U.S.

The scheduled October 12^th release of the USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates depends on the federal government remaining open.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 9.405 million bushels, compared to 7.95 million in 2022; Average Yield: 57 bushels per acre, compared to 53 a year ago; Planted Area: 230,000 acres, compared to 220,000 last year; Harvested Area: 165,000 acres, compared to 150,000 the previous year

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 67.86 million bushels, compared to 44.24 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 87 bushels per acre, compared to 79 a year ago; Planted Area: 840,000 acres, compared to 650,000 last year; Harvested Area: 780,000 acres, compared to 560,000 the previous year

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 30.82 million bushels, compared to 19.44 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 92 bushels per acre, compared to 81 a year ago; Planted Area: 405,000 acres, compared to 290,000 last year; Harvested Area: 335,000 acres, compared to 240,000 the previous year

Kansas: Winter Wheat: TOP PRODUCER: 201.25 million bushels, compared to 244.2 million in 2022; Average Yield: 35 bushels per acre, compared to 37 a year ago; Planted Area: 8.1 million bushels, compared to 7.3 million last year; Harvested Area: 5.75 million bushels, compared to 6.6 million the previous year

Kentucky: Winter Wheat: 40.48 million bushels, compared to 30 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 88 bushels per acre, compared to 80 a year ago; Planted Area: 610,000 acres, compared to 530,000 last year; Harvested Area: 460,000 acres, compared to 375,000 the previous year

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 46.48 million bushels, compared to 34.445 million in 2022; Average Yield: 83 bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; Planted Area: 600,000 acres, compared to 460,000 last year; Harvested Area: 560,000 acres, compared to 415,000 the previous year

Minnesota: Spring Wheat: 78.12 million bushels, compared to 73.81 million in 2022; Average Yield: 62 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a year ago; Planted Area: 1.3 million acres, compared to 1.25 million last year; Harvested Area: 1.26 million acres, compared to 1.21 million the previous year

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 42 million bushels, compared to 24.6 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 70 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a year ago; Planted Area: 780,000 acres, compared to 630,000 last year; Harvested Area: 600,000 acres, compared to 410,000 the previous year

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 36.96 million bushels, compared to 26.24 million in 2022; Average Yield: 42 bushels per acre, compared to 32 a year ago; Planted Area: 1.13 million acres, compared to 980,000 last year; Harvested Area: 1.68 million acres, compared to 1.8 million the previous year

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 53.1 million bushels, compared to 36.735 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 90 bushels per acre, compared to 79 a year ago; Planted Area: 650,000 acres, compared to 510,000 last year; Harvested Area: 590,000 acres, compared to 465,000 the previous year

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 32.9 million bushels, compared to 37.96 million in 2022; Average Yield: 47 bushels per acre, compared to 52 a year ago; Planted Area: 920,000 acres, compared to 830,000 last year; Harvested Area: 700,000 acres, compared to 730,000 the previous year

Spring Wheat: 27.95 million bushels, compared to 34.08 million in 2022; Average Yield: 43 bushels, compared to 48 a year ago; Planted Area: 740,000 acres, compared to 750,000 last year; Harvested Area: 650,000 acres, compared to 710,000 the previous year

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 31.2 million bushels, compared to 24.455 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 80 bushels per acre, compared to 73 a year ago; Planted Area: 470,000 acres, compared to 410,000 last year; Harvested Area: 390,000 acres, compared to 335,000 the previous year

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 17.48 million bushels, compared to 18.33 million in 2022; Average Yield: 76 bushels per acre, compared to 78 a year ago; Planted Area: 280,000 acres, compared to 300,000 last year; Harvested Area: 230,000 acres, compared to 235,000 the previous year