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USDA sees big year to year drop in winter wheat production

The USDA has slightly increased its outlook for this year’s winter wheat crop.

The current estimate is 1.250 billion bushels, up less than 1% from May’s guess and 25% less than the 2016 total of 1.672 billion. The yield is expected to be 48.9 bushels an acre, which would be up 0.1 from a month ago, and the second highest on record, after last year’s average of 55.3 bushels per acre. Harvested area is projected at 25.564 million acres, compared to 30.222 million a year ago. 2017 wheat acreage was close to a hundred year low because of low prices, relatively slow export demand, and a large available world supply.

By type, the USDA has hard red winter at 743.039 million bushels, compared to 1.082 billion in 2016, soft red winter at 298.173 million bushels, compared to 345.230 million a year ago, and white at 208.98 million bushels, compared to 193.66 million last year.

The USDA’s most recent report shows 49% of the crop in good to excellent condition, down 13% from this time last year, with 10% of the crop harvested, a little bit ahead of average.

Winter wheat production, yield, and harvested area estimates for listed Brownfield states:

Illinois: 32.85 million bushels, compared to 34.78 million in 2016; average yield of 73 bushels per acre, unchanged from a month ago and down 1 from a year ago; harvested area of 450,000 acres, down 20,000 from last year

Indiana: 18.72 million bushels, compared to 22.68 million in 2016; average yield of 78 bushels per acre, unchanged from a month ago and down 3 from a year ago; harvested area of 240,000 acres, down 40,000 from last year

Michigan: 34 million bushels, compared to 50.73 million in 2016; average yield of 85 bushels per acre, unchanged from a month ago and down 4 from a year ago; harvested area of 400,000 acres, down 170,000 from last year

Missouri: 30.24 million bushels, compared to 39.9 million in 2016; average yield of 63 bushels per acre, up 1 from a month ago, but down 7 from a year ago; harvested area of 480,000 acres, down 90,000 from last year

Nebraska: 46.46 million bushels, compared to 70.74 million in 2016; average yield of 46 bushels per acre, down 5 from a month ago and 8 from a year ago; harvested area of 1.01 million acres, down 300,000 from last year

Ohio: 32.68 million bushels, compared to 44.8 million in 2016; average yield of 76 bushels per acre, down 2 from a month ago and 4 from a year ago; harvested area of 430,000 acres, down 130,000 from last year

South Dakota: 39 million bushels, compared to 63.8 million in 2016; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, down 6 from a month ago and 8 from a year ago; harvested area of 780,000 acres, down 320,000 on the year

Wisconsin: 14.63 million bushels, compared to 19.75 million in 2016; average yield of 77 bushels per acre, up 3 from a month ago, but down 2 from a year ago; harvested area of 190,000 acres, down 60,000 on the year