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USDA reduces soybean ending stocks estimate

The USDA has lowered its U.S. soybean ending stocks projection.

Just a quarter into the marketing year, the soybean carryout is now seen at 175 million bushels, down 15 million on the month because of higher crush demand and, if realized, the tightest supply in seven marketing years. The USDA didn’t make any changes to the soybean export estimate despite the fast pace of sales and the month to month reduction was smaller than what some were expecting heading into the report.

U.S. corn ending stocks were unchanged with no adjustments to the balance sheet and wheat ending stocks were down modestly on decreased imports and increased exports.

Globally, the USDA cut soybean and corn ending stocks slightly, lowering production outlooks for Argentina  but leaving Brazil unchanged, and reduced the world carryover for wheat on increased demand expectations.

The 2020/21 marketing year started June 1st for wheat, September 1st for corn and soybeans, and October 1st for soybean products.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out January 12^th, along with the final 2020 production totals for corn and soybeans.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 862 million bushels, compared to 877 million in November and 1.028 billion for 2019/20. The USDA lowered imports 5 million bushels to 120 million for a total supply of 2.974 billion bushels. Exports were raised 10 million bushels to 985 million for total use of 2.112 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4.70 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and up from the $4.58 the previous marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks came out at 1.702 billion bushels, unchanged from last month and down from the 1.995 billion last marketing year. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $4 per bushel, compared to $4 in November and $3.56 for 2019/20.

2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 175 million bushels, compared to 190 million a month ago and 523 million the marketing year prior. The USDA raised crush use 15 million bushels to 2.195 billion, leaving total use at 4.534 billion bushels. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $10.55 per bushel, compared to $10.40 last month and $8.57 last marketing year.

For 2020/21 U.S. soybean products, the USDA raised soybean oil ending stocks with higher production canceling out larger exports, with biodiesel use unchanged, and an average farm price of $.36 per pound, up on the month and the year. Soybean meal ending stocks were unchanged as increased production and imports were offset by a bigger export guess. The average farm price for soybean meal is estimated at $370 per short ton, also up on the month and the year.

2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 315.50 million tons, compared to 320.45 million in November. Production is seen at 773.66 million tons, up more than a million as increases for Australia, Canada, and Russia offset a decrease for the European Union. Domestic feed use is estimated at 141.03 million tons, compared to 137.13 million a month ago, and exports are expected to be 193.65 million tons, compared to 190.79 million last month. The USDA raised export projections for Australia, Canada, and Russia, and the import guess for China.

2020/21 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 288.96 million tons, compared to 291.43 million a month ago. Production is estimated at 1.144 billion bushels, slightly lower than the previous guess, with reduced outlooks for Argentina, Canada, and the European Union, canceling out a slight rise for Ukraine. Domestic feed use is pegged at 727.98 million tons, compared to 725.71 million last month, with exports of 185.97 million tons, compared to 184.77 million in November. The UDSA increased the export guess for Ukraine and raised imports by China.

2020/21 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 85.64 million tons, compared to 86.52 million last month. Production is projected at 362.05 million tons, a little bit lower than the prior report, on lowered expectations for Argentina and the European Union. Domestic crush use is pegged at 321.64 million tons, compared to 320.89 million in November, with exports of 168.48 million tons, compared to 167.82 million a month ago.