News

USDA projects bigger old crop corn, soybean supplies

The USDA has raised old crop ending stocks estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans.

2018/19 corn is now projected at 2.095 billion bushels, with the USDA slashing the ethanol use guess 50 million to 5.45 billion, and soybeans are seen at 995 million bushels on a lower export use estimate, down 100 million to 1.775 billion bushels.

Corn ending stocks are expected to increase even further next marketing year to 2.485 billion bushels, with the USDA projecting a crop of 15.030 billion bushels, but soybean supplies could be tighter because of a smaller crop, with the initial guess at 4.15 billion bushels and 2019/20 ending stocks of 970 million.

Still, the numbers don’t take into account current corn planting delays that could lead to bigger soybean acreage or current disputes with some major U.S. trading partners, including China.

2018/19 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 1.127 billion bushels, up 40 million on the month, primarily on reductions for feed and residual use and export demand. 2019/20 supplies are seen at 1.141 billion bushels, because of a bigger crop and even lower export demand.

For 2018/19, the average farm price for wheat is pegged at $5.20 per bushel, with corn at $3.50 and soybeans at $8.55, while for 2019/20, wheat is seen at $4.70 per bushel, with corn at $3.30 and soybeans at $8.10.

The 2018/19 marketing year runs through the end of May for wheat and the end of August for corn and soybeans.

The USDA projects big South American corn and soybean crops.

Corn production estimates for both Argentina and Brazil were up on the month, at 49 million and 100 million tons, respectively, with the USDA also raising export projections, signaling even more competition for U.S. producers.

Brazil’s soybean estimate was unchanged on the month at 117 million tons, while Argentina was up slightly to 56 million, but exports were steady to lower, because of uncertainties over Chinese demand as African Swine Fever continues to spread, slashing herd numbers and lowering imports.

2018/19 world wheat ending stocks were down from March, but only modestly, leaving the supply and demand outlook bearish, and the 2019/20 global projection is even higher.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out June 11^th.