News

USDA makes less aggressive cuts to Brazil crop estimates

The USDA has cut its guesses for soybean and corn production in Brazil.

Brazil’s soybean crop is now seen at 156 million tons, 1 million below January, and more than 6 million above the most recent projection from CONAB following a much more aggressive reduction, with the USDA also raising its export estimate to 100 million tons, contrary to CONAB, which lowered its outlook.

Brazil’s combined corn crop is pegged at 124 million tons, 3 million less month ago and still about 10 million tons more than CONAB, with both USDA and CONAB lowering Brazil’s corn export projection.

There were no changes to production or exports for Argentina.

Stateside, U.S. corn ending stocks were up on the month due to lower food, seed, and industrial usage expectations, soybean stocks were higher because of slower export demand, and wheat stocks grew slightly because of expected lower food use.

The 2023/24 marketing year kicked off June 1st for wheat and September 1st for corn and soybeans.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out March 8^th.

Comparisons for U.S. and world corn, soybean, wheat balance sheets:

2023/24 U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected to be 658 million bushels, compared to 648 million in January and 570 million for 2022/23. The USDA reduced feed use 10 million bushels to 960 million for domestic use of 1.144 billion bushels and total use of 1.869 billion bushels. The average estimated 2023/24 farm price is $7.20 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and $8.83 the previous marketing year.

2023/24 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.172 billion bushels, compared to 2.162 billion last month and 1.36 billion last marketing year. The USDA lowered food, seed, and industrial use 10 million bushels to 6.78 billion, leaving domestic use at 12.455 billion bushels and total use at 14.555 billion bushels, respectively. The average estimated 2023/24 farm price is $4.80 per bushel, steady with January and down from the average of $6.54 for 2022/23.

2023/24 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 315 million bushels, compared to 280 million a month ago and 264 million in the prior marketing year. The USDA slashed exports by 35 million bushels to 1.72 billion, while raising seed use 1 million bushels to 102 million and lowering residual use 1 million bushels to 22 million, leaving total use at 4.144 billion bushels. The average estimated 2023/24 farm price is $12.65 per bushel, compared to $12.75 last month and $14.20 last marketing year.

There were no major adjustments for U.S. soybean products, as ending stocks for both were steady with January. The average estimated 2023/24 farm price for soybean oil is $.51 per pound, compared to $.54 a month ago, while the average estimated 2023/24 farm price for soybean meal was $380 per short ton, unchanged.

2023/24 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 259.44 million tons, compared to 260.03 million a month ago. Production is now projected at 785.74 million tons, compared to 784.91 million in the prior report, on upgrades for Argentina, Kazakhstan, and selected Middle Eastern nations against downgrades for Brazil, the European Union, and the United Kingdom. Exports were up just over a million tons on increased expectations for Argentina, Australia, and Ukraine, which canceled out slight reductions for Brazil and the United Kingdom. Russia’s exports were unchanged at 51 million tons.

2023/24 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 322.06 million tons, compared to 325.22 million in January. Global production is estimated at 1.233 billion tons, compared to 1.236 billion in the last update, following the reductions for Brazil, Mexico, and Southeast Asia. Exports were nearly steady, just a little bit lower, at 200.82 million tons, with that cut for Brazil, now at 52 million tons, offset by a gain for Ukraine, now at 23 million tons. If realized, that reduction in Brazil’s corn exports would put the U.S. back in the top slot.

2023/24 world soybean ending stocks are projected at 116.03 million tons, compared to 114.6 million last month. Global production is seen at 398.21 million tons, compared to 398.98 million in January, with the sole published adjustment for Brazil, now estimated at 156 million tons, 1 million below a month ago. The USDA did raise exports, contrary to CONAB. Imports by China were unchanged at 102 million tons.