News

USDA lowers U.S. soybean, wheat ending stocks

The USDA has tightened the domestic balance sheets for soybeans and wheat. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 425 million bushels, down 50 million from January, on an upward revision for exports, but the USDA cut the average price estimate by a quarter, down to $8.75 per bushel. Wheat ending stocks were lowered to 940 million bushels, also on a higher export guess, with the average farm price unchanged at $4.55 per bushel. Domestic corn ending stocks were unchanged at 1.9 billion bushels and the average price was steady at $3.75 per bushel.

Globally, world wheat and corn ending stocks were down slightly, while soybeans were up more than 2 million tons. The USDA also raised soybean production for Brazil, corn production in Ukraine, and China’s soybean import estimate.

The 2019/20 marketing year started June 1st for wheat, September 1st for soybeans and corn, and October 1st for soybean products.

The next set of supply and demand estimates is out March 10th.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2019/20 U.S. wheat ending stocks are pegged at 940 million bushels, compared to 965 million in January and 1.080 billion for 2018/19. The sole change to the balance sheet was in exports, up 25 million bushels to 1 billion, putting total use at 2.165 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $4.55 per bushel, compared to $4.55 a month ago and $5.16 in the previous marketing year.

2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 1.892 billion bushels, compared to 1.892 billion last month and 2.221 billion last marketing year. Corn for ethanol use was up 50 million bushels at 5.425 billion, putting domestic use at 12.345 billion bushels, while exports were down 50 million bushels at 1.725 billion, leaving total use unchanged at 14.070 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $3.85 per bushel, compared to $3.85 in January and $3.61 for 2018/19.

2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 425 million bushels, compared to 475 million a month ago and 909 million the prior marketing year. Exports were raised 50 million bushels to 1.825 billion, taking total use to 4.058 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $8.75 per bushel, compared to $9 last month and $8.48 last marketing year. The USDA lowered 2019/20 soybean oil production and biodiesel use expectations, but raised exports and ending stocks, estimating the average price at $.335 per pound, compared to $.34 in January and $.2826 in 2018/19. 2019/20 soybean meal production and ending stocks were modestly lower, with the average farm price estimated at $305 per short ton, compared to $305 a month ago and $308.28 the previous marketing year.

2019/20 world wheat ending stocks are expected to be 288.03 million tons, compared to 288.08 million last month, with production of 763.95 million tons, compared to January’s guess of 764.39 million, on a lower projection for North Africa. Domestic feed use is seen at 148.01 million tons, compared to 148.36 million in January, with exports of 182.82 million tons, compared to 181.07 million a month ago.

2019/20 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 296.84 million tons, compared to 297.81 million last month, with production of 1.112 billion bushels, compared to 1.111 billion the month before. The USDA raised production for South Africa and Ukraine, cancelling out a modest decline in Southeast Asia. Domestic feed use is pegged at 704.89 million tons, compared to 703.92 million a month ago, with exports of 165.77 million tons, compared to 165.64 million in January.

2019/20 world soybean ending stocks are anticipated to be 98.86 million tons, compared to 96.67 million a month ago, with a global crop of 339.4 million tons, compared to 337.7 million in the prior update. That followed an upward revision for Brazil against a downward revision for Paraguay. Domestic crush use is projected at 304.33 million tons, compared to 303.58 million in January, with exports of 151.5 million tons, compared to 149.15 million last month. The USDA increased the export outlook for Brazil and the import guess for China. Soybean product sales for Argentina were unchanged.