News

USDA lowers 2018 corn, soybean crop estimates

The USDA has lowered its 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production outlooks more than what many analysts were expecting heading into the report. The department lowered average yield projections for corn and beans and reduced the harvested area estimate for beans slightly, but the expectations remain at record or near record levels. This report does not include any damage that has occurred since the start of the month.

As of November 1st, corn is seen at 14.626 billion bushels, down 1% from October, with an average yield of 178.9 bushels per acre, 1.8 less than last month, and harvested area of 81.767 million acres, steady with the USDA’s most recent guess. Record average yields are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota, along with Alabama, Kentucky, New York, and Tennessee. In 2017, corn totaled 14.604 billion bushels with an average yield of 176.6 bushels per acre and harvested area of 82.703 million acres.

Soybeans are pegged at 4.599 billion bushels, 2% lower than a month ago, with an average yield of 52.1 bushels per acre, down a bushel on the month, and harvested area of 88.343 million acres, a little bit less than in October. New record high yields are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, and Ohio, in addition to Kentucky, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. In 2017, soybeans totaled 4.411 billion bushels with an average yield of 49.3 bushels per acre and harvested area of 89.522 million acres.

Domestic ending stocks estimates for corn and wheat were also below most pre-report projections, but global carryover numbers for beans, corn and, wheat were larger than anticipated, with the USDA including recent official revisions by China’s government.

The next set of supply and demand estimates is out December 10th and final 2018 production totals for corn and soybeans are due in January.

Comparisons for corn and soybeans in Brownfield states:

Illinois: Corn: 2.279 billion bushels, compared to 2.201 billion in 2017; record average yield of 210 bushels per acre, compared to 212 a month ago and 201 a year ago; harvested area of 10.85 million acres, compared to 10.95 million last year; Soybeans: 688 million bushels, compared to 611.9 million in 2017; record average yield of 64 bushels per acre, compared to 66 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 10.75 million acres, compared to 10.55 million last year

Indiana: Corn: 1.003 billion bushels, compared to 934.2 million in 2017; record average yield of 194 bushels per acre, compared to 194 a month ago and 180 a year ago; harvested area of 5.17 million acres, compared to 5.19 million last year; Soybeans: 355.8 million bushels, compared to 320.76 million in 2017; record average yield of 60 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 54 a year ago; harvested area of 5.93 million acres, compared to 5.94 million last year

Iowa: Corn: 2.525 billion bushels, compared to 2.606 billion in 2017; average yield of 198 bushels per acre, compared to 204 a month ago and 202 a year ago; harvested area of 12.75 million acres, compared to 12.9 billion last year; Soybeans: 576.52 million bushels, compared to 566.58 million in 2017; average yield of 58 bushels per acre, compared to 61 a month ago and 57 a year ago; harvested area of 9.94 million acres, unchanged from last year

Michigan: Corn: 315.4 million bushels, compared to 300.51 million in 2017; record average yield of 166 bushels per acre, compared to 163 a month ago and 159 a year ago; harvested area of 1.9 million acres, compared to 1.89 million last year; Soybeans: 109.92 million bushels, compared to 96.475 million in 2017; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 42.5 a year ago; harvested area of 2.29 million acres, compared to 2.27 million last year

Minnesota: Corn: 1.371 billion bushels, compared to 1.480 billion in 2017; average yield of 184 bushels per acre, compared to 191 a month ago and 194 a year ago; harvested area of 7.45 million acres, compared to 7.63 million last year; Soybeans: 385.5 million bushels, compared to 384.275 million in 2017; average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 47.5 a year ago; harvested area of 7.71 million acres, compared to 8.09 million last year

Missouri: Corn: 485.75 million bushels, compared to 552.5 million in 2017; average yield of 145 bushels per acre, compared to 142 a month ago and 170 a year ago; harvested area of 3.35 million acres, compared to 3.25 million last year; Soybeans: 265.88 million bushels, compared to 292.545 million in 2017; average yield of 46 bushels per acre, compared to 48 a month ago and 49.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.78 million acres, compared to 5.91 million last year

Nebraska: Corn: 1.804 billion bushels, compared to 1.683 billion in 2017; record average yield of 195 bushels per acre, compared to 195 a month ago and 181 a year ago; harvested area of 9.25 million acres, compared to 9.3 million last year; Soybeans: 344.65 million bushels, compared to 326.025 million in 2017; record average yield of 61 bushels per acre, compared to 62 a month ago and 57.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.65 million acres, compared to 5.67 million last year

Ohio: Corn: 629.18 million bushels, compared to 554.01 million in 2017; record average yield of 193 bushels per acre, compared to 190 a month ago and 177 a year ago; harvested area of 3.26 million acres, compared to 3.13 million last year; Soybeans: 294.41 million bushels, compared to 251.955 million in 2017; record average yield of 59 bushels per acre, compared to 60 a month ago and 49.5 a year ago; harvested area of 4.99 million acres, compared to 5.09 million last year

South Dakota: Corn: 821.7 million bushels, compared to 736.6 million in 2017; record average yield of 166 bushels per acre, compared to 172 a month ago and 145 a year ago; harvested area of 4.95 million acres, compared to 5.08 million last year; Soybeans: 274.89 million bushels, compared to 241.23 million in 2017; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 43 a year ago; harvested area of 5.61 million acres, unchanged from last year

Wisconsin: Corn: 531 million bushels, compared to 509.82 million in 2017; average yield of 177 bushels per acre, compared to 179 a month ago and 174 a year ago; harvested area of 3 million acres, compared to 2.93 million last year; Soybeans: 107.31 million bushels, compared to 101.65 million in 2017; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 47.5 a year ago; harvested area of 2.19 million acres, compared to 2.14 million last year