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USDA leaves U.S. soybean exports unchanged, for now

The USDA has raised domestic ending stocks projections for corn and wheat more than what many analysts were expecting, while making no changes for U.S. soybeans.

The department reduced its corn for ethanol estimate after first quarter use declined for the first time since 2012 and wheat exports were lowered to reflect the slow pace of sales halfway through the marketing year.

U.S. soybean ending stocks were unchanged on the month as trade uncertainties with China continue and the outlooks for Brazil’s new crop and exports were higher.

The next set of supply and demand estimates, along with the final 2018 production totals for corn and soybeans, will be out in January. The 2018/19 marketing year ends in May for wheat, August for soybeans and corn, and September for soybean products.

Breakdown of selected domestic and global supply and demand tables:

2018/19 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 974 million bushels, compared to 949 million in November and 1.099 billion for 2017/18. No changes were made to the supply side of the ledger and the sole change to demand was a reduction of 25 million bushels in exports, down to 1 billion, leaving total use at 2.149 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $5.05 to $5.25 per bushel, compared to $4.90 to $5.30 a month ago and $4.72 a year ago.

2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 1.781 billion bushels, compared to 1.736 billion last month and 2.140 billion last marketing year. Imports were lowered 5 million bushels to 45 million, taking the total supply down to 16.811 billion bushels. The food, seed, & industrial use guess was reduced 50 million bushels to 7.08 billion because of the 50 million bushel cut in ethanol use, down to 5.6 billion bushels. That lowers domestic use to 12.58 billion bushels and total use to 15.03 billion. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $3.25 to $3.95 per bushel, compared to November’s range of $3.20 to $4 and the 2018/19 average of $3.36.

2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 955 billion bushels, unchanged from a month ago and up from the 438 million bushels left over a year ago. No changes were made to the domestic balance sheets. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $7.85 to $9.35 per bushel, compared to $7.60 to $9.60 last month and $9.33 last marketing year.

2018/19 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are pegged at 1.915 billion pounds, steady with November and down from the 1.99 billion at the end of 2017/18, while soybean meal ending stocks are seen at 450,000 short tons, unchanged from a month ago and down from the 553,000 a year ago. No changes were made to the domestic soybean product balance sheets either. The average 2018/19 farm price for soybean oil is estimated at $.28 to $.32 per pound, unchanged from last month and close to the average of $.3004 last marketing year, while the average farm price for soybean meal is estimated at $290 to $330 per short ton, steady with November and below the average of $345.02 for 2017/18.

2018/19 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 268.1 million tons, compared to 266.71 million a month ago. China holds 143.57 million tons of the global total, by far the most of any individual nation. World production is now seen at 733.41 million tons, down 100,000 from last month, with lowered expectations for Australia canceling out a slight increase for Canada. Domestic feed use is pegged at 141.96 million tons, compared to 140.96 million last month, and exports are estimated at 177.36 million tons, compared to 178.79 million in November.

2018/19 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 308.8 million tons, compared to November’s projection of 307.51 million tons. The global crop is estimated at just under 1.1 billion bushels, a little bit more than last month, with increased outlooks for the European Union, Southeast Asia, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states offsetting reductions for Canada and South Africa. No changes were made to the production guesses for Argentina and Brazil. Domestic feed use is estimated at 698.74 million tons, compared to 696.67 million a month ago, and exports are seen at 166.46 million tons, compared to 165.64 million last month. Exports for Argentina and Brazil were also unchanged on the month, while the projections for the dozen smaller former Soviet states and Ukraine were slightly higher.

2018/19 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 115.33 million tons, compared to 112.08 million last month. The next global crop is seen at 369.2 million tons, compared to 367.5 million a month ago, with the USDA increasing its outlook for Brazil 1.5 million tons to 122 million and leaving Argentina at 55 million tons. Anticipated domestic crush use is now 308.19 million tons, compared to 307.6 million in November, with China holding at 92.5 million tons, and exports are seen at 156.09 million, compared to 155.44 million tons a month ago. The UDSA raised exports for Brazil to 81 million tons, but lowered Argentina to 5 million, and left imports by China unchanged at 90 million tons.