USDA increases soybean product ending stocks estimates

The USDA raised old crop soybean meal and oil estimates in the most recent supply and demand report.

Soybean meal was up 50,000 short tons from April at 400,000 on an expected increase in imports due to high domestic prices, but also raised the average farm price estimate because of solid demand.

Soybean oil was up 100 million pounds on the month at 1.82 billion, with the USDA expecting a decrease in exports and food demand to cancel out a big jump in biofuels usage, with the USDA also increasing the average expected farm price for bean oil.

Globally, for soybean meal, the USDA raised beginning, or 2019/20 ending stocks, and 2020/21 ending stocks projections, along with exports and imports, while lowering production and domestic use. The USDA left soybean meal imports unchanged, increased exports for Argentina, and lowered exports for Brazil. In 2021/22, the USDA sees higher production, ending stocks, imports, exports, and domestic demand. The USDA does expect exports to rise for South America and imports to grow for China.

For soybean oil, the USDA lowered beginning and ending stocks, domestic use, and production, while raising trade projections. The department sees higher exports for Argentina, Brazil, and the European Union, and bigger imports for China and India. Next marketing year, the USDA projects a tighter supply, higher production, increased trade, and greater domestic demand, with higher exports for South America, lower exports for the European Union, and bigger imports by China and India.
The USDA projects higher soybean product production next marketing year, which starts October 1st.

Breakdowns for U.S. soybean product supply and demand tables:

2020/21 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are estimated at 1.818 billion pounds, compared to 1.718 billion in April and 1.853 billion for 2019/20. Domestic disappearance was up 100 million pounds at 23.6 billion, with an increase of 1.6 billion pounds for biofuel, up to 9.5 billion, mostly offsetting a decrease of 1.5 billion for food, feed, and industrial use, down to 14.1 billion pounds. Exports were lowered 200 million pounds to 2.3 billion, taking total use to 25.9 billion pounds. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $.55 per pound, compared to $.45 a month ago and $.2965 in the prior marketing year.

2021/22 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are pegged at 1.513 billion pounds, with production of 25.945 billion, biofuel use of 12 billion pounds, food, feed, and industrial use of 13.4 billion, and exports of 1.45 billion pounds. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $.65 per pound.

2020/21 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks are seen at 400,000 short tons, compared to 350,000 last month and 341,000 last marketing year. Imports were hiked 50,000 short tons to 650,000, putting the total supply at 52.75 million. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $405 per short ton, compared to $400 in April and $299.50 for 2019/20.

2021/22 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks are projected at 450,000 short tons. Production is expected to be 52.5 million short tons, with imports of 450,000, domestic disappearance of 38.6 million, and exports of 14.3 million short tons. The average 2021/22 farm price is estimated at $400 per short ton.

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