News

USDA expects a little less milk, fewer cows in 2024

USDA has adjusted the 2023 dairy production and cow inventories downward, and they’ve lowered their 2024 expectations.  Friday’s supply and demand report shows 2023 milk production was lower than anticipated with fewer cows on farms and slower growth in milk output per cow.

USDA says milk production for December was projected at 226.9 billion pounds, with 228.3 billion pounds expected this month.

Fat and skim-solids bases imports for 2023 were unchanged but 2024 expectations are lowered, based on lower expected cheese and butter fats imports. Exports on a fat basis for 2023 are lowered, but exports on a skim-solids basis went up. For 2024, projected exports on a fat basis will rise as butter and cheese prices are expected to be more competitive on the world market. Skim-solids basis exports for 2024 are unchanged.

The 2024 expected Class III milk price is lower, with lower cheese prices outweighing higher whey prices. Class IV prices went up due to higher butter and nonfat dry milk forecasts. The 2023 national average all milk price forecast is unchanged at $20.60 per cwt and the 2024 all milk price is lowered to $20.00 per cwt.

USDA’s Cattle Report, coming out January 31st will show producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for the breeding herd.