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U.S. winter wheat crop waiting for spring weather

U.S. winter wheat is heading into dormancy with less than half of the crop in good to excellent condition, due in part to the drought or near drought conditions in much of the southern U.S. Plains.

Allendale’s Chief Strategist Rich Nelson tells Brownfield that doesn’t determine what shape the crop will be in when it comes out of dormancy, “Really, how conditions are at the start of dormancy does not have a fantastic correlation to the final yield numbers.”

Nelson says the timeframe to watch is spring 2021, “The biggest determinant, as far as winter wheat yields, are those spring rains, those late March to mid-April rains that restart the crop.”

As of Sunday, 46% of U.S. winter wheat was rated good to excellent, 3% more than the previous week, but 6% less than a year ago, with week to week gains in some states canceling out declines in other growing areas.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out on the 10th.

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