U.S. soybean, corn, wheat stocks up on month
The USDA raised its domestic old crop corn and soybean ending stocks projections.
Corn ending stocks for the current marketing year are seen at 1.452 billion bushels, up 35 million on the month, with a reduction in imports canceled out by a cut in exports.
The old crop soybean carryover pegged at 230 million bushels, 15 million more than in May on a lower export guess.
Those adjustments to old crop corn and soybean stocks pushed new crop stocks higher, to 2.257 billion and 350 million bushels, respectively, with no other changes to the balance sheets.
New crop wheat ending stocks are estimated at 562 million bushels, an increase of 6 million, all on a higher winter wheat production projection.
Globally, the USDA also made an upward revision to Brazil’s corn estimate, while lowering the outlooks for Brazil’s soybeans and Argentina’s corn and soybeans.
New crop world wheat production was above a month ago on larger expectations for the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine.
The current marketing year for wheat started June 1st, while the new marketing year for corn and beans gets underway September 1st.
The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out July 12th.
2022/23 U.S. wheat ending stocks are pegged at 598 million bushels, unchanged from May and down from the 698 million bushels at the end of 2021/22. The average 2022/23 farm price is estimated at $8.85 per bushel, steady with a month ago and up from the average of $7.63 a year ago.
2023/24 U.S. wheat ending stocks are expected to be 562 million bushels, compared to 556 million last month. That followed an increase in all wheat production to 1.665 billion bushels, 6 million higher, putting the total supply at 2.399 billion bushels. The average 2023/24 farm price is estimated at $7.70 per bushel, compared to $8 in May.
2022/23 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.452 billion bushels, compared to 1.417 billion a month ago and 1.377 billion for the previous marketing year. The USDA lowered imports 15 million bushels to 25 million, taking the total supply to 15.132 billion bushels. Exports were cut 50 million bushels to 1.725 billion, leaving total use at 13.68 billion bushels. The average 2022/23 farm price is estimated at $6.60 per bushel, unchanged from last month and up from the average of $6 last marketing year.
2023/24 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 2.257 billion bushels, compared to 2.222 billion in May. The sole shift was the increase in beginning stocks, or 2022/23 ending stocks, which left the total supply at 16.742 billion bushels. The average 2023/24 farm price is estimated at $4.80 per bushel, steady with a month ago.
2022/23 U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to be 230 million bushels, compared to 215 million last month and 274 last marketing year. The USDA cut the export guess 15 million bushels to 2 billion, lowering total use to 4.34 billion bushels. The average 2022/23 farm price is estimated at $14.20 per bushel, unchanged from May and up from the 2021/22 average of $13.30.
2023/24 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, compared to 315 million a month ago. The lone adjustment was that increase in old crop ending stocks, which put the new crop supply total at 4.76 billion bushels. The average estimated 2023/24 farm price is $12.10 per bushel, steady with last month.