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Trade disruptions will cost US ag economy

An ag economist says one thing the US ag economy doesn’t need in its current environment is a contentious trade relationship with any of its key partners.

Scott Brown with the University of Missouri says last week’s talk of a trade disruption with Mexico creates uncertainty in the US grain market and market opportunities for other countries – like Brazil. “But that might just be some movement of trade into particular countries,” he says.  “We might be able to fill trade into countries that Brazil had to leave to make sure they had adequate supplies for Mexico.  The net effect of that on prices might be less than we would first say when we think about what happens if we can no longer ship corn to Mexico.”

He tells Brownfield that restriction could carry over to livestock.  Brown says right now the US needs access to all available markets to provide price support for livestock producers.

Mexico is the top export market for US pork and that could be in jeopardy if the relationship between the two countries continues to decline.  “Mexico is important to pork trade and will continue to be important to pork trade,” he says.  “We certainly find an advantage in terms of transportation of product to the south relative to other countries.”

Brown says while the situation certainly is not ideal – there could be other opportunities for the US to export goods to other markets.