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Quarterly grain stocks at multi-year lows

The USDA is reporting multi-year lows for the U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat supplies because of strong demand.

As of March 1st, corn stocks were 7.701 billion bushels, 3% below a year ago, and a six-year low. On-farm stocks were 4.037 billion bushels, 9% lower, while off-farm supplies were 3.664 billion bushels, 5% higher. The indicated disappearance for December 2020 through February 2021 was 3.59 billion bushels, compared to 3.38 billion during the same period a year ago.

Soybeans came out at 1.564 billion bushels, a drop of 31% on the year, the tightest supply in five years. On-farm stocks were 594 million bushels, a decrease of 41%, and off-farm stocks were 970.164 million bushels, 22% lower. The indicated disappearance during the second quarter of the 2020/21 marketing year was 1.38 billion bushels, up 39% from the second quarter of 2019/20.

Wheat was reported at 1.314 billion bushels, 7% less than last year, the lowest total in six years. On-farm supplies were 283.29 million bushels, down 16%, and off-farm stocks were 1.030 billion bushels, a decline of 4%. The indicated third quarter disappearance was 388 million bushels, 9% below Q3 2019/20.

Sorghum was pegged at 136.592 million bushels, 17% under a year ago. On-farm supplies were 5.115 million bushels, a drop of 70%, and off-farm stocks of 131.477 million bushels were down 11%. The indicated second quarter disappearance was 83.1 million bushels, down 3% on the year.

The 2020/21 marketing year started June 1st, 2020 for wheat and September 1st, 2020 for beans, corn, and sorghum.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out April 9th, while the next quarterly stocks report is due at the end of June.

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