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Market analyst Suderman estimates 7.5M lost corn acres

INTL FCStone market analyst Arlan Suderman is projecting the number of lost corn acres at seven-and-a-half million.

That would put total planted corn acreage around 85 million.

The next question, Suderman says, is how many of those acres will actually be harvested for grain.

“We know in 1993 the harvest percent nationally dropped from the typical level of 91.8 down to around 85.8,” Suderman says. “So that’s a significant factor right there indicating a loss of, potentially, several million acres.”

Suderman says this Friday’s acreage report from USDA will be a “throw-away report”.

“The algos—or the computers—will trade it versus trade expectations, and then we’ll move on,” he says, “and I think the pressure is going to mount for USDA to do a special survey in July that will be reported with the August WASDE (report). It would basically be a repeat of the June survey, a month later.”

On soybeans, Suderman says he’s still working with the USDA’s 84.6 million figure from March. He says it’s difficult to pinpoint soybean acreage right now.

Suderman’s current yield projections are 166 on corn and 48 on soybeans.