Economist predicting record low soybean stocks

An ag economist is predicting historically low March 1st soybean ending stocks ahead of USDA’s Grain Stocks Report.

Ben Brown with the University of Missouri tells Brownfield usually the Prospective Plantings Report gets all the attention in March, but he says there could be some surprises for soybean ending stocks.

“We are looking at a soybean stocks to use ratio of about 2.6% which is marginally smaller than the record set in 2013-2014.”

He says it has been a very robust quarter for soybeans.

“We are looking at 1.4 billion bushels of soybeans used in the quarter. That is 316 million bushels better than our five-year average and that has been a combination of both exports and domestic demand. Basically, everything hat we have left to use in the second half of the marketing year is the same as what we used in the second quarter.”

He says any surprises to March 1st stocks or changes to December 1st stocks will have big market moving effects including support for soybean prices.

Brown says if his estimates align with USDA’s projections to be released March 31st, there will likely be soybean shortages across the country this year leading to stronger imports.

Interview with Ben Brown

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