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Dry weather in South America might bring export biz to U.S.

A grain market analyst says the U.S. might get more export business if the developing weather problem in South America doesn’t change in the next few weeks.

Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company tells Brownfield northern Brazil is dry, causing germination problems with the recently planted crops.

“The tropical area that typically gets an abundance of rain, maybe 12 to 15 inches each month, has only had about one-third of its normal rainfall starting back in August.”

Basse says the alarm button would be hit if crops aren’t planted by mid-November or need to be re-seeded.

“That means our window for second crop, whether its corn or soybeans, is starting to close quickly. That’s the choke point for the Brazilian farmer north of the central Mato Grosso area, a big part of the winter corn crop in Brazil.”

USDA’s Foreign Ag Service is forecasting smaller corn production in Brazil, with the combined crop at 130 million tons andthe world’s leading corn exporter is expected to ship less corn due to that smaller crop.

“This is the importance of watching weather in the next few weeks over central and northern Brazil.”

If weather challenges persist, Basse says that might provide U.S. farmers with decent selling opportunities as corn at the U.S. Gulf is competitively priced and there are plenty of supplies.