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CONAB lowers Brazil soybean, corn estimates

Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA has cut its soybean and corn production projections. CONAB cited hot, dry weather in central and western growing areas along with excessively wet conditions in the south for the reductions, which have impacted planted area and hampered development during the early part of the season.

Brazil’s soybean crop is seen at 160.177 million tons, down 1.4% from November due to planting delays, but still larger than what some were expecting and potentially up 3.6% from a year ago. Those delays in soybean planting will have some impact on Brazil’s second corn crop, which is planted after beans are harvested.

Second crop production is currently pegged at 91.235 million tons, slightly more than a month ago, but 10.9% below a year ago, with farmers already expected to reduce planted area this year. Brazil’s first corn crop is nearly planted with an estimate of 25.309 million tons, which would be a decline of 2.1% on the month and 7.5% on the year. The third crop, growing roughly the same time as the U.S. corn crop, is seen at 1.984 million tons, steady with November and 10.1% lower than last year. Combined corn production is projected at 118.528 million tons, 0.5% under last month and 10.2% below last year.

CONAB expects Brazil’s bean and exports to remain strong but be down slightly on the year due to smaller crops, which could open up some opportunities for U.S. farmers.

CONAB also lowered its expectations for wheat production to 8.143 million tons, while raising outlooks for cotton and rice to 3.061 million and 10.786 million tons, respectively.

The next crop update from CONAB for Brazil is out January 4^th.