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China Phase One trade not part of export bump

A lack of detail in the Phase One trade deal with China has left USDA analysts without much to work with in the way of ag trade estimates for the year ahead.

Sharon Raszap says they know what they don’t know…

“It didn’t specify the timing that these purchases are going to be made.  It also didn’t release a mix of commodities, so we don’t know how much of that value could go for soybeans, for corn, for fish.  And, it also didn’t take away the tariffs on U.S. goods.”

During last week’s USDA Ag Outlook Forum, Raszap said China announcing possible exemptions on tariffs is promising but might be complicated.

“Chinese companies have to apply for these exemptions and they will be considered on market conditions.”

USDA’s outlook forecasts for 2019 do not include trade spurred by the Phase One trade deal but are forecasting ag exports $4 billion higher.