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Breaking down USDA’s August 2023 Farm Income forecast

The USDA has pulled back its projections for net farm income in 2023 by nearly 23% to $141.3 billion.

University of Missouri ag economist Scott Brown says livestock cash receipts are expected to decline by 4.6% even with a nearly 18% jump in cattle receipts. “Hogs were down 9.8%,” he says.  “Dairy has a $12 billion decline in dairy receipts in 2023 relative to 2022, that’s 21% lower. Boilers are also down nearly 13% and eggs down 32%.”

Brown says there are other factors pressuring farm income in 2023. “Cash expenses are 7.3% higher,” he says.  “Total crop and livestock receipts are down about 4%, government payments are down 19%. That’s how we get a 22% decline in farm income.”

While farm income in 2023 is down significantly from 2022 – Brown says that’s not the case when considering historical averages.  “Looking at 2015 to 2019, if you do that comparison, farm income is up 86.3%,” he says.  And compared to the 20-year average, 2023’s net farm income is up about 22.5%.