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Brazil remains a market mover

An ag marketer says he expects the USDA to lower Brazil’s corn and soybean production numbers in the Friday supply and demand report.

Mark Talaski with Advance Trading tells Brownfield reductions are likely to impact U.S. demand.

“It’s probably bigger in the soybean arena because of the tighter soybean stocks,” he says. “Even if you add 100 to 150 million bushels to our export program, it probably doesn’t move the needle on the carryout.”

Talaski says while dry weather in that region has caused some crop issues, he’s still concerned that production remains sizable.

“We could see a very glut of supply going into this year as the farmer goes to the field this spring,” he says.  “It could be a bit of a tougher story than what we’ve seen the last couple of years with prices.”

He also expects USDA will increase U.S. crop production estimates compared to the previous report because of better-than-expected yields.

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