News

Big changes in U.S. soybean stocks, global corn

The USDA raised its U.S. soybean ending stocks projection, while tightening the balance sheet for corn and wheat.

The soybean carryover is now projected at 955 million bushels, up 70 million on the month, with a lower production guess and higher crush more than canceled out by a cut in exports as the tariff battle continues with China. The USDA also lowered its outlooks for seed and residual use. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $7.60 to $9.60 per bushel, compared to October’s range of $7.35 to $9.85 and the estimated 2017/18 average of $9.33.

Corn was lowered 77 million bushels to 1.736 billion on a lower production outlook against lower feed use and exports. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $3.20 to $4 per bushel, compared to $3 to $4 a month ago and the estimate of $3.36 for 2017/18.

Wheat ending stocks were 7 million bushels below October at 949 million following an increase in the seed use estimate. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $4.90 to $5.30 per bushel, compared to $4.80 to $5.40 last month and $4.72 last marketing year.

The global soybean ending stocks are seen at 112.08 million tons, compared to 110.04 million last month. The USDA lowered its production outlook for the U.S. and Argentina, while leaving Brazil unchanged and raising China slightly. Chinese imports were lowered 4 million tons to 90 million and the overall export outlook was reduced to 155.44 million tons, with a big cut for the U.S. canceling out an increase for Brazil.

World corn ending stocks were up sharply on the month at 307.51 million tons as the USDA factored in recent data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics that showed much larger than initially reported production not only in 2017, but also 2016 and 2015. The 2018/19 world production outlook is now 1.099 billion bushels, up more than 30 million on the month, with a big upward revision for China and smaller increases for Argentina, Ukraine, and dozen smaller former Soviet states, which more than offset reduced expectations for the U.S. and European Union. The new numbers for China also impacted domestic feed use and beginning stocks.

Global wheat ending stocks are now seen at 266.71 million tons, up more than 6 million from October. The world crop guess is pegged at 733.51 million tons, about 3.5 million more than a month ago, with increased projections for Brazil, China, the European Union, and North Africa cancelling out lower estimates for Australia, Pakistan, and the dozen smaller former Soviet states.

The current marketing year runs through May 2019 for wheat and August 2019 for corn and soybeans.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out December 10th.