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Agronomist watching export numbers in this week’s USDA report

An Illinois based agronomist is anticipating lower demand numbers in USDA’s supply and demand report this week.

Mike Toohill with AgriSompo North America tells Brownfield he is worried about exports, ethanol and feed usage going down.

“We are down significantly from the last couple of years as far as corn exports to China, and also with the lower feed numbers I am concerned our feed use will be lowered again. We’ve also got some issues on the grind side, some of the ethanol numbers have not looked good the last two or three months.”

He says if that translates to Thursday’s numbers, it will increase carryout.

“I would not be surprised to see carryout, especially on corn raise maybe 200-300 million bushels, which would be negative for prices. Probably not as much on soybeans, but again it would be nice to get those exports up and going.”

He says higher prices, the stronger US dollar and low river levels leading to transportation delays have taken a toll on exports.  

The USDA’s preliminary final 2022 Crop Production Report is also out Thursday but Toohill is not expecting many changes there.

He predicts the national corn yield to stay around 172 bushels per acre, and soybeans to remain around 50, with some minor state increases potentially bumping the final numbers by a few tenths.

“My own personal thoughts based on what I am hearing and reading; the national crop got slightly bigger from November to the final, yields stabilized in the western drought areas, and there was a slight increase in the “I” states.”

Toohill expects the Illinois corn yield to remain at a record 215 bushels per acre, and increases Iowa by 2 bushels to 204 and Indiana by 1 bushel to 192.

The USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Report and preliminary final crop production estimates for 2022 come out Thursday at Noon EST/ 11 central, with another possible adjustment to the production totals later this year.