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Ag trade surplus is shrinking

The U.S. agriculture trade surplus is shrinking. Fiscal Year 2019 U.S. agriculture exports are projected at $137 billion, $6 billion less than last year. Meanwhile, the agriculture import projection is a billion dollars higher than the February forecast at $129 billion.

“That’s up a billion from our February forecast,” said Rob Johansson, chief economist at the USDA, in comments provided by the agency, “and up a little over a billion dollars from last year’s level at $127.6 billion.”

The positive agriculture trade balance of about $8 billion is approximately half what it was last year. He says exports are down because of trade disputes.

Agriculture imports are rising because of the growing U.S. economy and strengthening dollar.

“Which is making our exports a little bit more difficult to sell and making imports easier to buy,” said Johansson.

Agriculture exports are down because of reductions in grains, oilseeds, and livestock. Soybean exports are projected to be $1.5 billion lower because of less demand due to African swine fever, weak prices, and continuing trade tensions with China.