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Ag economy barometer sees largest one-month decline since it started

Producer sentiment is down as farmers continue to face trade uncertainty from retaliatory tariffs and low commodity prices.

Ag economist Jim Mintert says the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 26 points, the largest one-month drop since the survey started.

“What drove that decline was primarily a really big drop in people’s perception of current conditions,” he says. “And the current condition index dropped 40 points from June to July-it was 138 in June and dropped to 99 in July.”

He tells Brownfield although some producers are hopeful that a quick resolution is possible, seven out of ten farmers surveyed said they expect their farm income to decline because of trade disputes.

“We asked them what kind of a decline they might expect and we gave them three choices: a zero to 10 percent decline, a 10-20 percent decline, or a more than 20 percent decline,” he says. “And the answers were pretty equally split across those three buckets and I think that’s indicative of the level of uncertainty out there.”

Mintert says farmers also expect commodity prices to remain low. Less than two out of 10 producers said December corn futures will trade above $4 per bushel and November soybean futures will trade above $9.50 per bushel.

The ag economy barometer is a monthly survey of 400 U.S. ag producers. A rating below 100 is negative, while a rating above 100 indicates positive feelings about the ag economy.

Jim Mintert, Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture