Market News

Wheat up with help from lower dollar

Soybeans were modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Soybeans followed through somewhat on last week’s late reversal, with early help from bean meal. That help did die off a little bit as bean meal moved down from its session highs, still closing in positive territory, thanks in part to the sale of 126,000 tons of U.S. bean meal to unknown destinations. 30,000 tons of that is for 2023/24 delivery, with the remainder for 2024/25, which starts October 1^st for soybean products. Bean oil was firm on the positive tone in the complex. Soybean export inspections topped a million tons, below the prior week, but above a year ago, mainly to China and Mexico. China reportedly bought a large amount of soybeans from Brazil last week. Weather in South America looks favorable, but there’s a wide range of estimates for Brazil due to the various weather issues faced during planting and development.

Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Corn might have found the floor after the recent drop, watching development weather in Argentina and planting and development conditions for Brazil. The USDA’s monthly supply, demand, and production report is out Friday, March 8^th at Noon Eastern/11 Central, while CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is set for March 12^th. Taiwan bought 110,000 tons of old crop U.S. corn ahead of the open. Last week, U.S. corn export inspections were more than a million tons, down from the week before, but up from last year, primarily to Japan and Mexico. The back half of the 2023/24 marketing year for corn, and soybeans, started March 1^st. China reportedly bought corn from the U.S. last week, but there’s been no confirmation.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, along with mostly lower trade in the dollar during the session. The complex bounced off the recent lows, with an eye on winter wheat development weather. There’s some much-needed rain in the forecast for the parts of the Plains later this week. That could include portions of the southern Plains either threatened or recently impacted by wildfire. Still, the winter wheat crop is generally in much better condition than this time last year. U.S. wheat export inspections were lower on the week, but higher on the year, with Mexico and China leading the way. At the start of the final quarter of the marketing year, the pace continues to trail 2022/23 due to the dominance of Russia and Ukraine. The trade is also watching weather in Australia ahead of winter wheat planting and conditions in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada prior to the start of spring wheat planting.