Market News

Soybeans see profit taking, spillover from meal

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling. Analysts expected USDA to report harvest at around 85% complete, even with the recent widespread delays. The USDA says 85% of U.S. soybeans are harvested, compared to the five-year average of 78%. Weather is mixed in South America, too dry in some areas, too wet in others. AgRural says 40% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted, compared to 46% a year ago. Soybean meal contributed to the losses in beans, moving lower on profit taking and production spread adjustments. Bean oil was up on that product spread trade and demand expectations. Despite the recent overbought correction, the demand for soybean meal is friendly due to short supplies of soybeans in Argentina, normally the world’s biggest exporter of soybean products. Export inspections were down on the week and the year, but the pace remains ahead of what’s needed to meet USDA projections. The top destinations were China and Mexico.

Corn was mostly modestly lower. Corn is watching U.S. harvest activity, in addition to planting and development conditions in Argentina and Brazil. Stateside, as of Sunday, 71% of U.S. corn has been harvested, compared to 66% on average. In Brazil, issues with soybean planting could delay second crop corn planting. AgRural says 53% of Brazil’s first corn crop is planted, compared to 56% this time last year. The USDA’s updated supply, demand, and production numbers and CONAB’s new projections for Brazil are both out November 9^th. U.S. ethanol margins remain strong, while export sales have recently improved thanks to Mexico. Corn inspections were above a week ago and a year ago, primarily to Mexico and Japan. A very small amount of corn left U.S. ports last week bound for China. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says corn exports since the start of the marketing year are 3.6 million tons, compared to 6.8 million the year prior. There was no attributed reason, but Russia’s pull-out from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure have had an impact.

The wheat complex was mixed. Late U.S. winter wheat planting was delayed in some areas, but the moisture is generally beneficial ahead of the crop going dormant. According to the USDA, 84% of winter wheat is planted and 64% has emerged, both close to normal, while 47% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, compared to 28% in the first rating last year. Russia continues to dominate the export market due to a price advantage. Interior prices in Russia have moved higher, but FOB levels remain below most major competitors. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says wheat exports since the start of the marketing year are 4.5 million tons, a little bit behind the 4.9 million this time last year. After a brief pause, movement has resumed through Ukraine’s Black Sea shipping corridor. U.S. export inspections continue to move out slower than expected but did see a modest week-to-week and year-to-year improvement, with the Philippines and Chile leading the pack.