Soybeans mixed, corn, wheat down, watching weather
Soybeans were mixed, adjusting old crop/new crop spreads. U.S. planting and development conditions generally look non-threatening to beneficial. The USDA says 75% of U.S. soybeans are planted, compared to the five-year average of 54%, with 41% of the crop emerged, compared to 25% on average. Weekly export inspections were down on the week and the year, but the 2020/21 pace remains well ahead of 2019/20. The leading destinations were Egypt and Indonesia, with a relatively small amount headed to China, as most of that was shipped earlier in the marketing year. The 2021/22 marketing year for beans starts September 1st. Brazil continues to hold most the biggest share of the export market, because of U.S. supply tightness and competitive prices. The trade is also monitoring world vegetable oil demand uncertainties, especially in Asia due to spiking coronavirus infections. Additionally, the U.S. cash basis has been trending lower. Soybean meal was up on technical buying and bean oil was mixed, adjusting spreads. There’s talk Argentina’s government will lower biodiesel blending requirements, freeing up a substantial amount of bean oil for exports.
Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling, with most months finishing closer to the day’s highs than the lows. Corn is also watching U.S. planting and development conditions, with widespread rain in the forecast over the next week, including some dry parts of the U.S. Plains. As of Sunday, 90% of U.S. corn is planted, compared to the normal pace of 80%, and 64% has emerged, compared to 54% on average. The USDA’s first condition rating of the season for corn is expected in next week’s report, out Tuesday, June 1st because of Memorial Day. There’s rain in the forecast for Brazil, but it’s too late to help the critical second crop in some areas. Since the May WASDE report, most firms have issued lower production estimates because of warm, dry weather, especially in central and southern Brazil. Weekly export inspections were down modestly on the week and up sharply on the year, mainly to China and Mexico. Ethanol futures were unchanged.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling, but most contracts were able to close towards the upper end of the day’s range. More rain is in the forecast for parts of the Plains, including spring and winter wheat growing areas. For winter wheat, 47% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down 3% on the week and 7% on the year, with 67% of the crop headed, compared to 69% on average. For spring wheat, 94% of the crop is planted, compared to 85% typically in late May, while 66% has emerged, compared to the usual rate of 56%. There was also some hangover from last week’s better than expected yield results from a major winter wheat crop tour. Global crop conditions generally look good, but parts of Russia and Ukraine could use timely precipitation. The USDA’s next set of production estimates is out June 10th in the regular supply and demand update. Weekly export inspections were down on the week, up on the year, with Japan and Mexico taking the top two slots. The 2021/22 marketing year for wheat starts June 1st. DTN says the Philippines bought 25,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat, while Egypt is tendering for 55,000 to 60,000 tons of wheat for August delivery.