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Soybeans gain, following meal and oil

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, along with the higher move in soybean products. The harvest is 60% complete, with minor rain delays expected this week in parts of the Midwest and Plains. Nationally, reports of quality issues are minimal, but results for the last half of the harvest will be watched very closely. There’s also been talk, but no confirmation, of new Chinese interest in U.S. beans. Soybean meal and oil were up on commercial demand. Crush margins are improving and world vegetable oils have shown more strength recently. AgRural says 22% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted, compared to 10% a week ago and 8% a year ago, the second fastest pace on record. The big question for Argentina and Brazil this year is how much of an impact the approaching La Nina pattern have on yields.

Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling, unable to break overhead resistance. 52% of the corn harvest is complete, 11% ahead of average, with the condition rating holding steady. U.S. corn is competitively priced on the export market, but overall demand remains slower than expected. That includes a lack of demand from China. AgRural says 45% of Brazil’s first corn crop is planted, compared to 38% last week and 44% last year. Early season rainfall continues to favor most of Brazil over the entirety of Argentina. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday. Ethanol margins have improved as production has ramped higher and stocks have tightened.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago mostly fractionally lower, Kansas City weak, and Minneapolis higher. 70% of winter wheat is planted, a little bit slower than normal, as is emergence, with mixed conditions across key U.S. growing areas. Paris milling wheat hit another high ahead of the U.S. session on rumors of Chinese demand and global supplies are tighter, with the next set of supply and demand estimates out November 9th. SovEcon sees Russia’s 2022 wheat crop at 80.7 million tons, compared to 75.5 million for 2021. Winter wheat planting is ongoing in the Black Sea region. Kazakhstan’s Ag Ministry estimates 2021 grain exports at 6 to 6.5 million tons. The USDA’s attaché in Algeria is projecting a year to year drop of 28% in domestic grain production due to weather issues, which is expected to lead to an increase in imports. The office sees 2021/22 wheat imports at 8 million tons, compared to the official guess of 7.15 million and the 2020/21 total of 7.548 million tons. DTN says Ethiopia is tendering for 400,000 tons of milling wheat, while Japan is in the market for 81,318 tons of food wheat from the U.S. and/or Canada.

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