Soybeans, corn, wheat bounce back a little
Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, still closing sharply lower on the week. Contracts were oversold and due for a bounce, with help from strong domestic crush demand. The trade is watching probable harvest delays through the end of the month and yield reports, which have generally come in below USDA projections. The trade is also monitoring planting conditions in South America. All projections seem to be showing higher planted area and another record crop in Brazil, while some improvements in weather are expected to help production in Argentina. The USDA’s next round of U.S. and world yield and production estimates is out October 12th. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads.
Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, pulling contracts to a firm weekly finish. Corn is keeping an eye on yields and harvest delays in parts of the Midwest and Plains. Export demand is bearish for corn with Brazil maintaining its hold on the market, for now, and interior U.S. movement to port slowed by low levels on the Mississippi River. Additionally, grain is moving again in some Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, with at least one vessel reportedly loading ag products headed to China. Planting conditions in South America are mixed, with parts of Argentina and Brazil too dry. Unless conditions improve, or global prices rise significantly, Southern Hemisphere corn will likely lose at least some ground to soybeans. That’s a long-term bullish factor for global demand for U.S. corn. The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report is out Friday, September 29th.
The wheat complex was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying but lost a lot of ground from week-to-week. Wheat was able to find some buying interest to wrap up the week, but any upside will likely be limited by slow export demand. Russia continues to hold a big price advantage and some wheat is moving out of Ukraine. There was some support from dry weather in Argentina and Australia. Still, that’s going to have limited impact with only about a fifth of the global wheat market sourced from the Southern Hemisphere. Wheat marketing in Argentina has reportedly slowed because of the dry weather’s expected impact on production and policy uncertainties ahead of a presidential election. Stateside, the spring wheat harvest is nearly over, but could be delayed by forecasted heavy rain in the Northern U.S. Plains and winter wheat planting is ongoing ahead of the upcoming USDA Small Grains Summary.