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Soybeans, corn up, but under session highs

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, but below the day’s highs. Most forecasts have more hot, dry weather in parts of the western and northern growing areas, potentially stressing the developing crop. Still, contracts are a little overbought and prices are limiting demand to some extent. The near-term supply remains tight and is only getting tighter, but the USDA likely won’t adjust the production estimate until after the release of the 2021 planted area totals at the end of the month. Quarterly grain stocks are also out June 30th. Soybean oil was also supported by commercial buying, despite the recent losses for Malaysian palm oil on increased production and supply projections, along with talk of a reduction in the export tax. India is reportedly considering lowering its import tax on edible oils to limit price inflation. Soybean meal followed beans and bean oil higher.

Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying, with most contracts ending the session near lower end of the day’s range. Corn is also watching crop development conditions and the supply fundamentals. There’s been more talk, but no outright confirmation, of China buying U.S. corn. The trade continues to monitor conditions in Brazil, expecting further reductions in production projections. New USDA supply, demand, and production numbers are out Thursday, along with updated production estimates for Brazil from CONAB and the weekly export sales report. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday. The Renewable Fuels Association says April ethanol exports were 112.7 million gallons, down 15% from March, with DDGS exports at 862,736 tons, a decline of 2% on the month.

The wheat complex was mixed. Chicago and Kansas City were mostly modestly higher even as the winter wheat rating improved a little, with conditions in most areas expected to speed up harvest. Minneapolis was down on profit taking, despite weather leading to a week to week decline in the spring wheat rating. There’s not much relief in sight over the next week or so for most of the northern and northwestern U.S. Plains. Some rain is possible in parts of the region, but any positive impact would be muted by high temperatures. There are reports of producers terminating this year’s crop, but the full extent of any reduction in planted area won’t be known until later this month. Global crop conditions generally look favorable. Australia’s Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics projects new crop production at 27.6 million tons, while Ukraine’s Ag Ministry also has their wheat crop at 27.6 million tons. DTN says Japan is tendering for 181,355 tons of food wheat from the U.S., Australia, and/or Canada, and Jordan is in the market for 60,000 tons of milling wheat.

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