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Soybeans, corn see strong end to the week
Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, building on what would have already been a week-to-week gain. The USDA did lower Brazil’s crop guess by a million tons, while also raising the export outlook and increasing imports by China. That minimal change to Brazil’s by USDA was viewed as conservative, given recent private estimates and last month’s cut by CONAB, with their next outlook for Brazil out Tuesday, March 12th. Production for Argentina and U.S. ending stocks were unchanged. Weather in South America continues to look generally favorable for late development and harvest. Soybean meal was up on commercial demand, while nearby soybean oil was down on bear spreading.
Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, allowing corn to finish with a solidly higher move for the week. The USDA left U.S. ending stocks and the production guess for Brazil steady, while increasing Argentina’s crop and export projections. The export expectation for Ukraine was also above a month ago. The estimates for Russia’s and Mexico’s crops were lower and production and exports for South Africa were down slightly. The USDA’s prospective planting and quarterly grain stocks numbers are out on the 28th. U.S. conditions are generally better than a year ago, but there are persistently dry conditions in the central and western Corn Belt. Overall, the numbers for corn, and soybeans, were essentially neutral.
The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, with May Chicago down for the week after the recent run to new lows, while May Kansas City and Minneapolis both saw gains. U.S. ending stocks were up on the slow export pace, with the USDA raising production for Argentina, Australia, and Russia, and exports for Australia and Ukraine. The wheat production guess for the European Union was down. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out April 11th. Most of the backing for Friday’s gains was technical or even short covering by funds and can be tied to bargain hunting, not a change in fundamentals. A lot of the week’s pressure in Chicago was due to slow export demand, with China canceling on another 110,000 tons of U.S. soft red winter Friday, putting the total for the week’s announced cancelations at 240,000 tons. Statistics Canada’s planting estimates report is out Monday, with most analysts expecting a decline in wheat acreage.
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