Market News

Soybeans, corn see slight gains

Soybeans was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. The trade is expecting the USDA to report solid harvest progress with limited delays in the forecast for much of this week. The USDA says 12% of U.S. soybeans are harvested and 73% are dropping leaves, with 50% of the crop called good to excellent, 2% below last week. Anecdotal yields are mostly below expectations, while crush margins are bullish. The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, an important gauge of demand, is out Friday. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was sharply lower, with traders unwinding product spreads. Soybean export inspections were up on the week and the year, primarily to China and Japan. AgRural says 1.9% of Brazil’s 2023/24 crop is planted, compared to 1.5% this time last year.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Mexico bought 1,661,160 tons of U.S. corn Monday morning, the third largest ever to Mexico and the 11^th biggest single day sale on record. Out of the total, 1,049,771 tons are for 2023/24, with the remaining 611,389 tons for 2024/25. Export inspections were lower than a week ago, but higher than a year ago, mainly to Mexico and China. Low levels on the Mississippi River continue to be an issue for interior U.S. movement, including towards key ports. Corn is watching U.S. harvest activity, along with planting conditions in South America. Stateside, as of Sunday, 15% of U.S. corn is harvested, 95% has dented, and 70% is mature, all ahead of their respective five-year averages, with 53% of the crop in good to excellent condition, an increase of 2% on the week. Brazil’s second corn crop is 97% harvested, while Argentina’s new crop is 5% planted. The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 12^th.

The wheat complex was mostly modestly higher, with Chicago and Kansas City up and Minneapolis mixed. Russia attacked one of Ukraine’s key ports on the Black Sea Monday, damaging grain storage and export infrastructure. However, it would take significant sanctions or a huge shift in Russia’s prices to drive exports to the U.S. The most recent USDA export inspections report had wheat above last week, but below last year, with China and the Philippines leading the way. For winter wheat, 26% of the crop is planted, compared to 29% normally in late September, and 7% has emerged, compared to 6% on average. For spring wheat, 96% of the crop is harvested, matching the usual rate. The USDA’s Small Grains Summary report is out Friday. The trade is monitoring planting and development conditions in Argentina and Australia.