Market News

Soybeans, corn give back some gains

Soybeans were lower on profit taking and technical selling, unable to hold onto the session’s early gains. Forecasts are mixed this week, with the potential for rain in some dry portions of the Midwest. The trade was also getting ready for the first national soybean condition rating of the season. The USDA says 91% of U.S. soybeans are planted, compared to the five-year average of 76%, and 74% has emerged, compared to 56% on average. The first rating of the season for soybeans has 62% of the crop in good to excellent condition, with no comparison for a year ago. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. Export inspections were bearish, reflecting the hold Brazil has over the market, with the numbers down on the week and the year. The top destinations were Germany and Mexico.

Corn was lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is watching the weather with a chance for rain and cooler temperatures in parts of the region starting midweek. As of Sunday, 64% of U.S. corn is in good to excellent condition, down 5% on the week due to the recent hot, dry weather in the central and eastern Midwest. 96% of the crop is planted, compared to the usual rate of 91%, and 85% has emerged, compared to 77% on average. Export inspections were below a week ago and a year ago, primarily to China and Mexico. Brazil’s second crop harvest is underway, which is expected to further limit export demand for U.S. corn. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil’s crops is out June 13^th.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. The USDA will have an updated winter wheat production guess Friday, along with new supply and demand numbers. For winter wheat, 36% of the crop is in good to excellent shape, 2% above a week ago, with 82% of the crop headed, compared to 81% on average, and 4% is harvested, matching the typical pace. Rain in the spring wheat region this week is expected to be mixed. For spring wheat, 64% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, with no comparison to a year ago, and 93% has emerged, in-line with the normal rate, with 76% of the crop emerged, compared to 74% on average. A big question for spring wheat is how many acres have actually been planted this year following those early delays in the northern U.S. Plains. The USDA’s planted area numbers are out on the 30^th, along with quarterly grain stocks. Russia continues to delay loading and leaving for Ukrainian vessels out of the agreed upon Black Sea ports. Wheat export inspections have started 2023/24 on a negative note, trailing the slow pace of the 2022/23 marketing year, which was dominated by Russia. Last week’s leading destinations were Mexico and the Philippines. France’s AgriMer says 91% of their soft wheat crop is in good to excellent shape, 2% lower than a week ago.