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Soybeans, corn down on planting weather
Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling. 35% of U.S. soybeans are planted, ahead of average, but with big delays in some northern growing areas. More delays are expected in parts of the Midwest and Plains this week, even if it is still a little worried to get too concerned and the precipitation should help the crop start the growing season on the right foot. The trade is currently anticipating a big crop, but there is a long way to go until harvest. The trade is also monitoring the very tail end of Brazil’s record harvest. Soybean meal and oil were down on the losses in beans. Statistics Canada says canola stocks at the end of March were 5.948 million tons, up 15.3% on the year following a bigger crop, while soybean stocks were 1.995 million tons, 6% higher.
Corn was lower on fund and technical selling. 49% of corn is planted and emergence is ahead of average, with solid progress in the heart of the Corn Belt. China canceled on 272,000 tons of previously purchased old crop U.S. corn, the third reported cancellation in the last couple of weeks. While there’s nothing official, trade sentiment is that China is looking ahead to the availability of Brazil’s second crop. Overall, conditions in Brazil are favorable, but there are concerns dry conditions in some areas and the potential for a frost/freeze event. Sales of Brazil’s second crop are behind the year ago pace. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is out Thursday and new USDA supply and demand numbers will be released Friday. Statistics Canada says domestic corn stocks on March 31st were 9.075 million tons, 2.2% lower than a year ago.
The wheat complex was mixed. Kansas City was up on the poor condition of the hard red winter crop and Minneapolis was higher due to spring planting delays in the northern Plains. Dry weather is also delaying spring wheat planting in the Canadian Prairies. Chicago was down with soft red winter in relatively good condition. The trade is awaiting the demise of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Talks are expected later this week, but Russia continues to push for the end of sanctions while not registering Ukrainian ships and continuing to wage war in Ukraine. The pact officially expires May 18th. The USDA’s attaché in India estimates 2023/24 production at a record 110 million tons thanks to better than yields, while also expecting the export ban to remain in place, boosting domestic supplies. Statistics Canada reports what stocks at the end of March totaled 13.261 million tons, an increase of 18.2% on the year. Dry weather is an issue ahead of widespread planting in Argentina.
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