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Losses continue for soybeans, corn, wheat
Soybeans was sharply lower on commercial and technical selling. The trade is watching harvest activity in South America, palm oil was lower overnight, and bean oil was down, including a limit loss in the May contract. Additionally, China’s domestic prices were lower ahead of the U.S. session, a possible sign of supply security, and prices in Brazil have moved lower as their harvest advances. The USDA’s planting estimates and quarterly stocks numbers are out Wednesday. Most analysts expect higher acreage and a tighter domestic supply. Thursday, along with weekly export sales, the USDA will be issuing February soybean crush numbers, with the average guess at 165.1 million bushels, which would be down on the month and the year, and potentially the lowest monthly total since September 2019. Soybean meal was mixed, mostly modestly higher, adjusting spreads. The European Commission says marketing year to date soybean imports for the European Union are 11.02 million tons, compared to 10.61 million this time last year.
Corn was lower on commercial and technical selling. Corn is also watching conditions in South America, including potential stress to the critical second crop in Brazil, while getting ready for those USDA numbers. Ahead of the report, most analysts see higher planted area and lower quarterly stocks. Crop stress is also probable in parts of Argentina, while portions of the U.S. are expected to see early planting delays. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol supply and production numbers are also out Wednesday. Unknown destinations bought 100,800 tons of old crop U.S. corn ahead of the open. Full traffic has resumed in Egypt’s Suez Canal. Adding to the bearishness, China’s corn prices were lower ahead of the U.S. session. Ethanol futures were steady to lower.
The wheat complex was lower on commercial and technical selling. U.S. winter wheat conditions improved in most states, but there are areas of concern. Ratings moved higher for much of the central and southern Plains and the Midwest, but the crop is showing the impact of drought or near drought conditions in northern parts of the Plains. The global supply fundamentals are bearish and world conditions are generally good, while export demand for U.S. wheat is slow with less than a quarter left in the 2020/21 marketing year. APK-Inform reports Russia has exported 35.1 million tons of wheat since July 1st, 2020, up 24% from the same period last marketing year. Ukraine’s Ministry of the Economy says that nation will not hit the 17.5-million-ton cap for wheat exports by the time the marketing year ends June 30th. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out April 9th. Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA, CONAB, is surveying private supplies of wheat, rice, and coffee during April. Wednesday, the USDA is expected to issue a lower projection for spring wheat acreage due in part to dry conditions in parts of the northern U.S. Plains and Canada, while quarterly stocks should be tighter.
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