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Corn, wheat extend bounce, soybeans up

Soybeans were higher on fund and technical buying. Early harvest conditions look good in most areas, aside from rain in southern parts of the region. China and unknown destinations canceled on 132,000 and 196,000 tons of U.S. beans, respectively, possibly due to the shipping issues out of the Gulf. If that’s the case, those beans could be repurchased at a later date. China has reportedly recently purchased soybeans from Brazil, citing those delays, strong demand, and the tight U.S. supply. The USDA’s weekly export sales numbers are out Thursday at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central. Beans are also monitoring the start of planting in Argentina and Brazil. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects Argentina’s crop at 44 million tons due to lower planted area, with beans losing ground to corn. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. Bean oil had additional support from crude oil, canola, and palm oil. Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board says September exports are ahead of the August pace, while India’s palm oil imports during August were a three-month high. The NOPA’s member crush total for August was above expectations at 158.8 million bushels.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. Corn is also watching harvest conditions as the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicholas move along the Gulf coast and parts of that region continue to reel from Hurricane Ida. Corn will need a trend-line yield or better to meet demand expectations. In South America, southern Brazil has received rain during planting, but central Brazil remains dry. Timely rainfall will be critical to ensure Brazil’s new first crop is enough to meet domestic demand. The old first and second crops were both impacted by dry weather, drawing down supplies and leading to some imports. For now, several governmental and private firms are projecting record production for Brazil, but that was also true this time last year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees Argentina’s crop at 55 million tons. La Nina is expected to be an issue for South American corn and soybeans, possibly lowering yields. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 937,000 barrels a day, up 14,000 on the week and 11,000 on the year, while stocks hit a 14-week low at 20.01 million barrels, declining 380,000 from the previous week, but climbing 212,000 from a year ago. DTN says South Korea bought 68,000 tons of optional origin corn.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. Canada and France have recently lowered production estimates, with the next USDA spring wheat guess out on the 30th. Quarterly grain stocks numbers are also out at the end of the month. The trade is also monitoring the U.S. winter wheat planting pace and harvest activity elsewhere in Europe, along with Russia and Ukraine, in addition to the impact of dry conditions in parts of Argentina and Australia. France’s Agri Mer lowered its non-E.U. soft wheat export outlook to 9.6 million tons, compared to the prior projection of 10.5 million. U.S. export demand remains slow, with just a routine tender from Japan including U.S. wheat. DTN says Japan is in the market for 118,711 tons of food wheat from the U.S., Australia, and/or Canada. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out October 12th.

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