Market News

Corn, soybeans down ahead of stocks, acreage reports

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling. The trade was continuing to get ready for what could be a bearish set of USDA numbers Friday, while watching U.S. crop weather ahead of what might be a hot, dry weekend for much of the Midwest. Old crop exports were up on the week and new crop topped expectations, but the trade tensions with China continue to hang over the market. The USDA’s attaché in Beijing projects 2018/19 soybean imports for China at 100.5 million tons. Soybean meal was lower, following beans, and oil was just about unchanged, caught between beans and crude oil. According to Agricensus, the price spread between beans in the U.S. and Brazil is getting wider, with Brazil carrying a significant premium to the U.S. China’s National Grain and Oils Information Center says that nation’s soybean stocks continue to grow ahead of the tariffs officially going into effect July 6th.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn was also squaring up for Friday’s USDA numbers and watching weather, with a generally hot near-term forecast for many areas, potentially stressing the crop during early development phases. Weekly export numbers look neutral overall, with old crop sales ahead of last marketing year, but there are a lot of outstanding shipments, with less than a quarter left in 2017/18. Domestic feed and fuel use remains a bright spot. Corn continues to monitor the impact of trade tensions, not only China, but also the European Union, Canada, and Mexico. Ethanol future were lower. The first notice day for July contracts is Friday.

The wheat complex was steady to mostly, modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Spring wheat acreage should be above what the USDA was projecting in March and quarterly stocks are expected to down on the year, but still ample. The as of June 1st stocks for wheat are also effectively 2017/18 ending stocks and are expected to be above the USDA’s most recent projection from the last set of supply and demand numbers. 2018 acreage totals and quarterly grain stocks are out Friday at Noon Eastern/11 Central, and the next round of supply, demand, and production numbers are due July 12th. Statistics Canada’s next set of crop numbers are also out this Friday. Tunisia bought 125,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat. Grain consultants Agritel project Ukraine’s wheat crop at 24.72 million tons, down 5% on the year, because of dry conditions in southeastern portions of the growing region.