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Corn, soybeans bounce back slightly

Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. China and unknown destinations both bought new crop U.S. beans ahead of a meeting on Phase One trade deal progress on the 15th. The demand for China was split into two sales, one for 324,000 tons and one for 264,000 tons, while unknown destinations picked up 111,000 tons. That bring the total over the last four business days to 1,473,000 tons, all new crop, mainly to China. Beijing is also buying beans from Brazil, but some analysts expect purchases of U.S. beans to really increase after harvest gets underway. Near-term weather conditions look mostly non-threatening, but parts of the region remain dry and while some previously dry portions of Iowa have received rain recently, the storms were severe in some areas and have stretched into portions of Illinois. The USDA says 92% of U.S. beans are blooming, compared to the five-year average of 89%, and 75% of the crop is at the pod setting stage, compared to 68% on average, with 74% of the crop rated good to excellent, up 1% on the week. Weekly export inspections were up on the week, down on the year, mainly to China and the Netherlands. Soybean meal was higher, supported by commercial buying, and bean oil was steady to weak, consolidating.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying, bouncing off of last week’s lows. Corn is also watching the weather, expecting the USDA to raise the yield estimate Wednesday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. FSA acreage data is also out this upcoming Wednesday, due at 3 Eastern/2 Central. Weekly crop numbers were expected to show a steady to maybe slightly higher condition rating. As of Sunday, 97% of U.S. corn is silking, compared to 95% on average, 59% is at the dough making stage, compared to 52% normally, and 11% is dented, compared to 12% on average, with 71% of the crop called good to excellent, 1% lower. Ethanol futures were higher. Weekly export inspections for corn were up on the week and the year, with China and Mexico the main destinations. The current marketing year for corn runs through the end of August.

The wheat complex was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is nearly over and the spring wheat harvest is advancing. For winter wheat, 90% of the crop is harvested, compared to 93% on average. For spring wheat, 15% is harvested, compared to the usual pace of 25%, with 69% of the crop called good to excellent, a week to week decline of 4%. The big bearish factors continue to be the ample global crop and probable record large world supply, which should be reflected in Wednesday’s numbers. IKAR has Russia’s wheat crop at 81 million tons, up 1.5 million from the previous guess, beneficial rain is in the forecast for parts of Australia, and Canada’s crop generally looks good. Still, while some world wheat producers are expected to see strong numbers, the crop has been hit by weather woes in some areas, including Europe. The USDA’s attaché in France estimates that nation’s wheat crop at 31 million tons, a decrease of 25% from 2019 because of weather. The office has 2020/21 wheat exports by France at 13 million to 15 million tons, compared to almost 23 million last marketing year. Weekly U.S. export inspections were down on the week and the year but remain ahead of the 2019/20 pace.

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