Market News

Corn down Friday, still up on week

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling, capping off a bearish week. There was more influence from world vegetable oil prices and lower domestic cash basis bids by soybean processors. There’s not much evidence, but there is more talk about processors importing beans from Brazil because of their price advantage. U.S. planting is ahead of average and development conditions generally look good. There’s at least some expectation the USDA will report higher than expected planted area in the next acreage update. The next set of supply and demand estimates is out June 10^th, but there might not be an official adjustment until August. Brazil’s oilseeds association ABIOVE estimates new crop production at 137.5 million tons, compared to their last guess of 136.3 million and the old crop total of 128 million tons. Exports are expected to be 85.6 million tons, also above the prior projection and the previous marketing year. Safras e Mercado has Brazil’s new crop at 137.2 million tons, compared to their earlier expectation of 134.2 million tons. Soybean meal and oil were lower on fund and technical selling.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling, but the most active months posted week to week gains thanks to export demand from China. Corn is also watching U.S. planting and development conditions, expecting widespread rains over the next couple of weeks. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers are out Monday at 4 Eastern/3 Central. The tight near-term U.S. supply and solid demand did limit losses. There were no reports of China buying new crop U.S. corn Friday, breaking a streak stretching back to May 7^th, with total sales topping 11 million tons. Rain in the forecast for dry parts of central and southern Brazil could be too late to be too much help to that nation’s critical second crop. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says more than 27% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested. Ethanol futures were unchanged.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City down and Minneapolis mostly up, Friday, but all three lower for the week. Most forecasts have improved rain chances in some of the driest areas of the Plains. Still, it could be too late for spring wheat growing portions of the northern and northwestern Plains, with some anecdotal reports of producers switching to corn and soybeans because of weather. A major U.S. winter wheat crop tour had a much better than expected average yield. Most of the crop surveyed was in Kansas and the numbers imply a big year to year jump in that state’s crop. Global crop conditions generally look good. 79% of France’s soft wheat crop is in good to excellent shape, steady with the last rating. Interfax estimates Russia’s crop at 80.7 to 81.7 million tons, compared to 2020’s record total of about 85 million tons. The USDA’s attaché for Morocco says that nation raised its import tariff on common wheat May 15^th from 0% to 135% and that on June 1^st, the import tariff on durum goes from 0% to 170%, with the change being made to aid domestic producers.