Outsides, weather hit soybeans, wheat

Soybeans were sharply lower on commercial and speculative selling, along with spillover from the outside markets. The dollar was higher with the Dow, gold, and crude oil sharply lower, continuing to respond to global economic concerns. Past that – there’s talk of China cancelling soybean purchases and the trade’s watching weather. Soybean meal was mostly lower and bean oil was down, following beans.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying. Corn’s keeping an eye on weather but given the faster than normal development, yields in some areas may already be below the early projections. In any event, near term commercial demand is neutral, edging towards bullish. Ethanol was modestly higher.

The wheat complex was lower on commercial and technical selling, along with spillover from the outside markets, especially the dollar. Wheat’s also keeping an eye on weather with some rain expected in dry parts of the Black Sea region and eastern Australia. However, while the pattern for the Northern Plains is favorable, the Southern Plains should remain hot and dry over the near term. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reports 99% of the spring grain crop is planted as of Monday. According to Dow Jones Newswires, South Korea may buy 550,000 tons of feed wheat for October-December arrival but note price is a bigger factor now than in previous months, with feed grade wheat back at a premium to corn.

Cash cattle prices $2.00 lower than last week

USDA Mandatory reported cattle trading was light to moderate in the Texas Panhandle and Kansas on light to moderate demand. Live sales were 2.00 lower than last week at 121.00. At mid-afternoon a light to moderate cattle business developed in the North, with most dressed sales $2.00 lower than last week at 193.00. Most of the dressed sales had been limited to regional buyers. A few cattle sold in Iowa at 122.00. The slaughter totaled 124,000 head, the same as last week, and 1,000 less than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were higher on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice boxed beef was up 1.09 at 195.37, and select was .61 higher at 187.65.

Live cattle futures settled 60 to 177 points lower on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday. There was some recovery near the end of the session as nearby contracts had been posting losses of $2.00 per hundredweight or greater on concerns of sharply lower outside market pressure, while higher corn prices are adding to production costs. Fundamentals had little to say in the direction of the market with noncommercial or investment activity taking control of the market direction according to Rick Kment at DTN. June settled 1.55 lower at 117.80, and August was down 1.77 at 119.50.

Feeder cattle ended the session10 to 170 points lower in an extremely light trade. The tone of the market turned weak following the triple digit losses in the live pit as well as the strong rally in the corn. May settled .10 lower at 152.42, and August was down 1.65 at 158.47.

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Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 23, 2012

Jul. corn closed at $6.03 and 1/2, up 6 and 1/2 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $13.62 and 1/2, down 19 and 3/4 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $405.80, up 80 cents
Jul. soybean oil closed at 48.91, down 155 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.65 and 1/2, down 20 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $117.80, down $1.55
Jun. lean hogs closed at $84.42, down $1.40
Jun. crude oil closed at $89.90, down $1.95
Jul. cotton closed at 71.51, down 301 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $15.58, up 17 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,548.40, down $28.20
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,496.15, down 6.66 points

Wednesday midday cash livestock markets

USDA Mandatory is reporting cattle trading is light in the Texas Panhandle and very limited in Kansas on Wednesday. Compared to last week, a few early sales are 2.00 lower at 121.00, but the majority of producers continue to pass. Trading remains inactive in all other states.  Asking prices remain around 125.00 to 126.00 in the South and 197.00 to 198.00 in the North.

Boxed beef cutout values are higher in the noon report, with the choice up .73 at 195.01, and select is .49 higher at 187.53.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Ozarks Regional Stockyards at West plains, Missouri totaled 5253 head. Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves were unevenly steady to 2.0-0 lower, although larger uniform bunches of top end quality were steady to 2.00 higher, some instances of 5.00 better. Yearling steers over 650 lbs. were firm to mostly 2.00 higher, yearling heifers over 600 lbs. were mostly 2.00 to 3.00 higher. The supply was moderate to heavy. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 531 lbs. average 188.38 per hundredweight. 573 lb. heifers averaged 171.98.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade are .97 lower; the West is down .86 with both at 83.40 on a carcass basis, Eastern barrows and gilts are 1.57 lower at 80.88. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is 1.00 to 6.00 higher from 77.00 to 81.00. Terminal hogs are steady to 1.00 lower from 55.00 to 57.00.

Hog buyers aggressively increased country spending yesterday, possibly suggesting that packers are shorter bought than previously thought.

Improved weather forecasts pressure grains, oilseeds

Soybeans were lower on commercial and speculative selling, along with the higher dollar and lower crude oil. There was no fresh supportive news and the weekly crop progress numbers were bearish. Both planting and development are ahead of average and there’s at least some rain in the forecast for parts of the Cornbelt in the coming days. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following beans. Celeres, via Dow Jones Newswires, expects Brazilian farmers to increase soybean acreage slightly, projecting the 2012/13 crop at 79.2 million tons, while Agroconsult sees a larger planted area increase, with the crop at 80 million tons, as both expect improved weather. Harvest is near completion on the 2011/12 crop with the total expected to be around 65 million tons.

Corn was lower on speculative and commercial selling, in addition to the outside market direction. A lot like beans, corn was looking at a lack of fresh news and faster than normal planting and development. Also a lot like beans, corn’s continuing to keep an eye on weather conditions around the U.S. Midwest. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was lower on commercial and speculative selling, along with the higher dollar. Very similar to corn and soybeans, wheat had no real fresh news and the crop numbers are ahead of average. That said – also keep an eye on wheat weather, both here and abroad, especially the Black Sea region and eastern Australia. There’s some rain in the forecast for all of those areas but there’s also uncertainty about totals and overall coverage. European wheat was down on those chances for rainfall and the lower U.S. trade. Via Dow Jones Newswires, FC Stone Europe pegs Ukraine’s crop at 12 million tons and their low end estimate for Russia is 52 million tons. Australia’s Bureau of Statistics reports wheat stocks at the end of April were 18.92 million tons, down 11% on the month but up 9.3% on the year. 69% of the total is food grade. Japan issued a tender for 152,846 tons of milling wheat (57,255 tons U.S. dark northern spring, 48,786 tons Canadian western red spring, 28,458 tons U.S. hard red winter, and 18,347 tons U.S. western white).

Pork, beef stocks up on month, year

USDA reports month to month in-movement of pork and beef supplies in cold storage were larger than expected, with both also well above year ago levels, due to slow consumer demand and increased production levels.

Frozen beef came out at 517.528 million pounds, up 3% on the month when the average guess was for a less than 1% increase, and 17% more than this time last year. Boneless beef cuts made up most of the total at 446.062 million pounds.

Pork in cold storage was pegged at 659.532 million pounds, 8% above a month ago and 20% larger than a year ago. That’s just below the all-time end of April record of 663.4 million pounds set in 2008. The closely watched pork belly stocks were pegged at 74.780 million tons, an increase of 13% on the month and 41% on the year.

Chicken supplies were also larger than expected, despite improved export demand and slower production projections. The average pre-report estimate was 597.6 million pounds. Chicken totaled 606.583 million pounds, 6% more than last month but 18% less than last year, with all poultry at 1.048 billion pounds.

Poultry and livestock slaughter numbers are out Friday.

Vilsack: Moving crop reports ‘complicated’

Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack says the USDA is studying its procedures for releasing crop reports in response to new expanded trading hours implemented by the CME Group.

But Vilsack says changing report release times is not as simple as it sounds.

“A decision as to timing and information being accessible can potentially make the difference of millions of dollars, one way or the other, to those who are trading,” Vilsack says, “and now we have essentially two competing entities that have different hours that don’t necessarily align.”

Those competing entities are the CME Group and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which recently expanded its trading in grain futures. 

The Kansas City Board of Trade and MGEX, formerly the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, have followed suit and expanded their trading hours as well.

The challenge, Vilsack says, is to continue providing the information in a transparent and equitable way, “to do it in a very timely way, but not to distort the market or provide an undue advantage to someone or some entity as a result.”

USDA’s monthly crop reports are released at 7:30 a.m. Central time, when grain trading has traditionally been halted.

Vilsack made his comments during a conference call with reporters on Tuesday.

AUDIO: Tom Vilsack (1:48 MP3)

 

Cattle futures close higher on short covering and losses in corn

Feedlot country remains relatively quiet on Tuesday with just a few bids noted in Kansas at 122.00. DTN reports that significant trade will probably not develop until Wednesday or later. Packers remain cautious and beef salesmen are hoping they can keep cutouts moving higher. Feedlot operators remain bullish and are asking 125.00 to 126.00 live and 197.00 to 198.00 dressed. The Tuesday cattle slaughter at 126,000 head is even with last week, but 4,000 greater than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were weak on choice and firm on select on moderate demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was down .31 at 184.28, and select was up .57 at 187.04.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 30 to 55 points higher as renewed support entered the market based on short covering activity and sharp pressure in the corn futures market. Traders in the cattle complex stepped back into the market when front month corn was down 16 cents at midday and continued to fall. June cattle settled .55 higher at 119.35, and August was up .47 at 121.27.

Feeder cattle finished the session 75 to 110 points higher on the losses in corn and the firmness in live cattle futures. Although trade remained light the price firmness should help set the tone for the rest of the week. May settled .65 higher at 152.52, and August was up 1.02 at 160.12.

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Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 22, 2012

Jul. corn closed at $5.97, down 36 cents
Jul. soybeans closed at $13.82 and 1/4, down 30 and 1/4 cents
Jul. soybean meal closed at $405.00, down $11.50
Jul. soybean oil closed at 50.46, down 46 points
Jul. wheat closed at $6.85 and 1/2, down 18 and 1/2 cents
Jun. live cattle closed at $119.35, up 55 cents
Jun. lean hogs closed at $85.82, down 87 cents
Jun. crude oil closed at $91.66, down 91 cents
Jul. cotton closed at 74.52, down 300 points
Jun. Class III milk closed at $15.41, down 3 cents
Jun. gold closed at $1,576.30, down $12.10
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,502.81, down 1.67 points

Tuesday midday cash livestock markets

As expected on Tuesday, feedlot country is quiet. Feedlot managers are too bullish and packers are cautious due to poor margins so cattle trade will probably be delayed until late in the week. Beef salesmen are hoping they can keep cutouts moving higher. The choice beef was $2.00 higher on Monday, with select only .09 lower with decent early week movement. Asking prices are around 125.00 to 126.00 in the South, and 197.00 to 198.00 in the North.

Boxed beef cutout values are mixed in the noon report, choice beef is down .08 at 194.51, and select is .68 higher at 187.15

Joplin Regional Stockyards feeder cattle receipts totaled 5268 head on Monday. Compared to last week, steer calves traded steady to 2.00 higher, yearling steers were steady to 3.00 higher and feeder heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Yearling heifers were 1.00 to 3.00 higher. The demand was good on a moderate supply. Feeder steers, medium and large 1 weighing 500 to 600 lbs. traded from 165.00 to 187.00 per hundredweight, 6 to 7 weights from 149.00 to 173.00. Heifers weighing 500 to 600 lbs. brought 147.50 to 167.50, 6 to 7 weights from 138.50 to 150.00.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade are not reported due to confidentiality, the west is 2.16 higher at 85.35, and the East is .16 lower at 79.60 on a carcass basis. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 75.00 to 76.00. Terminal hogs are .50 higher to 1.00 lower from 54.00 to 57.50 on a live basis.

The country movement of market hogs was limited on Monday; short-bought packers may find it necessary to resume more aggressive spending by today or tomorrow.