Midday cash livestock markets for Tuesday

It is a typical Tuesday in cattle country with bids and asking prices still not fully established. A few showlists have been priced around 164.00 in the South, and 255.00 plus in the North. Though mixed from state to state, generally smaller in the South and larger in the North the new showlists look generally steady with last week. Fed cattle supplies are likely to remain relatively tight through the entire fall season.

Choice boxed beef 248.62, down .40, select is up .22 at 233.50 in the morning report.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Oklahoma National Stockyards on Monday totaled 8100 head. Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers trended steady to firm. Steer and heifer calves were mostly steady to 5.00 higher. There were very few true yearlings on offer with the majority of the supply consisting of un-weaned calves, as a result the most advances were recorded on larger packages of weaned cattle. Feeder steers medium and large 1 averaging 868 pounds brought 218.33 per hundredweight. 628 pound heifers traded at 230.26.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota and Eastern direct trade are not reported due to confidentiality. Western hogs are .78 lower with a weighted average on a carcass basis at 102.71. Nationally barrows and gilts are 1.84 lower at 98.88. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 90.00 to 97.00. Barrows and gilts at Midwest markets are fully steady from 65.00 to 74.00 on a live basis.

The pork carcass cutout value FOB plant 109.11, up .26 in the morning report.

Weights on the hogs moving to market remain well above year ago levels, almost large enough to offset the smaller head count. Over the next several weeks, hog kills should continue to trend seasonally larger and the gap to last year’s weekly kill volume will get smaller and smaller.

Soybeans, corn see slight bounce

Soybeans were higher on technical buying. Frost over the weekend wasn’t as bad or as widespread as expected and the trade’s still expecting a record crop. USDA reports 24% of soybeans are dropping leaves, compared to the five year average of 32%, while 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent, unchanged on the week. The trade’s also watching early planting conditions in South America. If anything’s going to help with the tight near term supply, it’ll be the strong demand. China bought another 118,000 tons of U.S. beans for 2014/15 delivery. Soybean meal was mostly weak and bean oil was higher. New FSA acreage numbers are out Tuesday.

Corn was higher on technical buying. Corn’s also watching the weather, with a warmer pattern expected across the region over the next ten days or so. According to USDA, 82% of corn is denting, compared to 85% on average, 27% has reached maturity, compared to 39% on average, and 4% is harvested, compared to 9% on average. 74% of corn is rated good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago. Ethanol futures were higher. Mexico picked up 120,000 tons of U.S. corn for 2015/16 delivery.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The big bearish factor for wheat continues to be the large available world supply. For spring wheat, 74% is harvested, compared to 86% on average, and for winter wheat, 12% is planted, compared to 11% on average. There was some freeze damage over the weekend in the Northern Plains, but, again, the world supply limits some of that impact, and Kansas City is focused on the rainfall recharging soil moisture in the Southern Plains. DTN reports Saudi Arabia bought 610,000 tons of hard wheat from the E.U., North and South America, and Australia, with the seller deciding the origin.

Cash hogs and pork values close higher

It was typically quiet in cattle country on Monday afternoon following the distribution of the new showlists. Ready numbers appear to be about steady with last week. There are reports from DTN that a few showlists are priced around 164.00 in the South and 255.00 plus in the North. The kill was estimated at 115,000 head, the same as last week, but down 4,000 from last year.

Boxed beef cutout values are lower on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings. Choice beef was down .91 at 249.02, and select was 1.26 lower at 233.28.

Live cattle contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange settled 30 higher to 50 lower in a light trade and the few players stepping in and out of the market had some significant control of price direction. While October held on to a moderate gain, pressure in the deferred contracts limited the ability to draw additional buyer support into the complex. October settled .07 higher at 156.35, and December was down .22 at 159.02.

[Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: September 15, 2014

Dec. corn closed at $3.43, up 4 and 1/2 cents
Nov. soybeans closed at $9.89 and 1/2, up 4 and 1/4 cents
Oct. soybean meal closed at $338.80, up 30 cents
Oct. soybean oil closed at 33.27, up 72 points
Dec. wheat closed at $5.00 and 3/4, down 1 and 3/4 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $156.35, up 7 cents
Oct. lean hogs closed at $106.07, up 37 cents
Oct. crude oil closed at $92.92, up 65 cents
Dec. cotton closed at 65.84, down 216 points
Oct. Class III milk closed at $23.87, up 52 cents
Oct. gold closed at $1,234.10, up $3.70
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,031.14, up 43.63 points

Monday midday cash livestock markets

The main item of business in cattle country on Monday is the distribution of the new showlists. Most buyers waited until Friday to purchase cattle and the numbers were minimal, so they will likely be starting out the week short bought. Live Southern deals were marked at 161.00 to 162.00, generally a 1.00 to 2.00 lower than the previous week, deals in the North ranged from 248.00 to 25.00, 1.00 to 3.00 lower.

Boxed beef cutout values were mixed in the morning report, choice beef 249.87 down .06, select 235.26 up .72.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin, Missouri Regional Stockyards total 4500 head today. Compared to last week, steer calves opened steady to 5.00 higher, with the increase on the 400 weights, heifer calves were steady. There was no early test on yearlings. Demand was good and supply was moderate. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 500 to 600 pounds ranged from 242.00 to 263.00 per hundredweight. 5 to 6 weight heifers brought 232.00 to 253.00.

Barrows and gilts in the direct trade areas were not reported due to confidentiality. Nationally the market is 3.69 lower at 97.11 weighted average on a carcass basis. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is 3.00 higher from 90.00 to 97.00. Barrows and gilts at Midwest markets on a live basis are steady to 1.00 higher from 63.00 to 74.00.

Pork carcass cutout value is 3.10 higher FOB plant 109.67. Loins were over $9.00 higher.

The potential damage tied to PED is still a big guessing game, according to DTN’s John Harrington. While the negative supply impact should lessen in magnitude moving forward, new cases of the virus continue to be reported. Serious concerns remain that the incidence of cases will increase again as fall and winter weather is more conducive to the spreading of the virus.

Cash butter hits $3

Cash butter hit a record $3 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Friday on one sale.  For the week, butter increased 15.5 cents per pound and 24.5 cents from two weeks ago.

Trade indications are butter from New Zealand and Australia is on its way to the United States.  Last Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade Auction had butter at $2,753 a metric ton which is about $1.23 per pound.

Cash cheese barrels increased a half-cent on Friday and 2014 Class III futures responded accordingly.  October gained 57 cents to $23.35, November increased 34 cents to $20.67 and December added 16 cents to $19.45.  For the week, October gained 68 cents and November added 18 cents.  All of the 2015 contracts were a little lower on Friday.

 

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from USDA raised the U.S. milk production estimate for 2014 citing increased production per cow.  Total milk production is predicted to be 206.3 billion pounds this year up 300 million from last month’s estimate and nearly 5 billion pounds above 2013.

The average price for cheese was raised 8.5 cents from August and is now projected at between $2.135 and $2.155 per pound this year.  Butter was raised 13 cents to between $2.17 and $2.21 for 2014.

At the same time, they lowered the dairy export forecasts for 2014 and 2015 as higher butter and cheese prices make those products less competitive on the world market.

Class III milk price estimate for 2014 was raised 90 cents, no projected to average between $22.15 and $22.35 per hundredweight.  The Class IV price slipped a nickel to between $22.30 and $22.60 this year.  That puts the all milk price at $23.80 to $24.00 for 2014, up 25 cents from last month’s estimate.  Most of the 2015 price estimates were increased slightly but remain significantly below 2014 prices.

Small bounce for soybeans

Soybeans were higher on technical buying. Contracts saw a modest bounce after Thursday’s losses and unknown destinations bought 131,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans. Parts of the region did see a freeze, but it likely won’t be enough to break the long term trend, and, unless something changes drastically, we’ll see a record crop this year. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher, adjusting product spreads.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, hitting another round of new contract lows. Corn was digesting the USDA numbers and watching weather developments in areas of the northern Midwest. The trade’s also keeping an eye on early yield numbers from some of the key producing states. New FSA acreage data is out Tuesday. Unknown destinations picked up 116,000 tons of U.S. corn. Ethanol futures were lower.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Rain in the Plains is slowing down winter planting, but more importantly, its recharging soil moisture. Past that – the fundamentals remain bearish, mostly due to the world supply, which was just reinforced by Thursday’s USDA report. DTN reports Tunisia picked up 100,000 tons of optional origin durum, Algeria bought 400,000 tons of wheat, and France purchased 100,000 tons of German milling wheat.

Pork and beef values end the day lower

Cattle trading was limited on Friday in the Texas Panhandle and moderate in Kansas on light to moderate demand. Live sales were 1.00 to 2.00 lower from 161.00 to 162.00. Trading was light in Nebraska with a few live sales from 160.00 to 162.00, but not enough to establish a market. Dressed sales were 2.00 lower than last week from 248.00 to 250.00. There were a few live sales in Iowa steady from 158.00 to 160.00, and dressed sales 2.00 lower 248.00 to 250.00.The weekly cattle slaughter at 592,000 was 74,000 more than last week, but 23,000 less than last year.

Boxed beef cutout values were lower on light demand and light to moderate offerings. Choice beef was down 1.61 at 249.43, and select was 1.81 lower at 234.54.

Live cattle contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange settled 5 to 112 points lower. Futures bounced above the morning lows. The significant shift lower in the weekly chart across all live cattle contracts will be hard pressed in drawing additional buyer support into the market over the immediate future. Traders will need to be able to gain additional confidence that beef values still have upward market potential in order to step back into the market. October closed 1.10 lower at 156.27 and December was down .45 at 159.25.

Feeder cattle ended the session 142 higher to 57 lower. Feeder cattle battled back from triple digit losses to hold onto mixed price levels into the close. Some of the support may have been attributed to end of the month profit taking, but overall there seemed to be little additional support to push prices aggressively lower due to expected demand support through the end of the year and tight supplies in both live cattle and feeder cattle numbers. September settled 1.42 higher at 229.47 and October was up .32 at 225.92.

Feeder cattle receipts at Missouri auctions this past week totaled 32,147 head. Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold steady to 5.00 higher with instances of 10.00 higher. Several barns got the full gain of the last two weeks after being off the previous week and saw markets 15.00 to 20.00 higher. The feeder supply was moderate. Feeder steers medium and large 1 averaging 576 pounds averaged 262.78 per hundredweight. 573 pound heifers averaged 240.52. [Read more...]

Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: September 12, 2014

Sep. corn closed at $3.39, up 7 and 1/4 cents
Sep. soybeans closed at $10.91, up 21 and 1/2 cents
Sep. soybean meal closed at $408.00, down $18.70
Sep. soybean oil closed at 32.16, up 72 points
Sep. wheat closed at $4.98 and 1/4, down 4 and 3/4 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $156.27, down $1.10
Oct. lean hogs closed at $105.70, down 67 cents
Oct. crude oil closed at $92.27, down 56 cents
Dec. cotton closed at 68.00, down 9 points
Sep. Class III milk closed at $24.52, up 4 cents
Sep. gold closed at $1,229.90, down $7.50
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16,987.51, down 61.49 points

Friday midday cash livestock markets

Packer inquiry into the cattle is slowly starting to improve with a few bids at 160.00 live in the South and 249.00 to 250.00 dressed in the North. Asking prices are around 163.00 to 165.00 in the South and 255.00 plus in the North.

Boxed beef values are lower in the morning report, with choice 150.53, down 1.01, select 236.53, .82 lower.

Feeder cattle receipts at Missouri auctions this past week totaled 32,147 head. Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold steady to 5.00 higher with instances of 10.00 higher. Several barns got the full gain of the last two weeks after being off the previous week and saw markets 15.00 to 20.00 higher. The feeder supply was moderate. Demand for cattle remains good to very good with overall tight supplies in the country being the driving factor. Feeder steers medium and large 1 averaging 576 pounds averaged 262.78 per hundredweight. 573 pound heifers averaged 240.52.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade are .54 higher with a weighted average of 103.29 on a carcass basis, the West is up .77 at 103.27, and the East is .24 lower at 96.38. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady from 87.00 to 94.00. Barrows and gilts at Midwest markets are very lightly tested from 2.00 to 5.00 higher from 64.00 to 66.00 live.

Pork carcass cutout value is .98 lower FOB plant 106.55,

Between mid-September and late October last year, weekly hog slaughter exploded by more than 200,000 head. Many of DTN private sources in the country seriously doubt the current finishing floor population can fund such an aggressive acceleration.