Fieldwork slows across much of the Corn Belt

On the Plains, recovery efforts continue in the wake of the tragic tornado in Moore, Oklahoma. Thunderstorms have re-developed across portions of the southern Plains, including tornado-ravaged areas south of Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, very cool weather prevails across the northern and central Plains. Fieldwork remains at a standstill in the Dakotas, where rain showers persist.

Across the Corn Belt, showery weather is halting most fieldwork, following last week’s phenomenal corn planting pace. Nearly half (43%) of the U.S. corn was planted during the week ending May 19, led by Illinois (57%), Iowa (56%), and Minnesota (52%). Similarly, 18% of the U.S. soybeans were planted during the 7 days ending May 19, paced by Michigan (36%), Ohio (29%), and Nebraska (26%).

In the South, locally severe thunderstorms are racing across several areas, including parts of Arkansas and western portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. A few heavy showers are also occurring along the southern Atlantic Coast. Across the remainder of the region, planting activities continue.

In the West, much cooler air is overspreading the Pacific Northwest, accompanied by widespread showers. In contrast, a ribbon of warm, dry weather stretches from central and southern California to the northern Intermountain West.

A very warm pattern for the Heartland

Looking ahead, a slow-moving storm centered over the upper Midwest will drift eastward, reaching the northern Atlantic States by Thursday. Another widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms can be expected later Tuesday, especially from Michigan to eastern Texas. On Wednesday, lingering strong thunderstorms may spread as far east as the upper Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes region. Additional rainfall associated with the storm could reach 1 to 3 inches, especially in the Mid-South, Northeast, and along the southern Atlantic Coast. Elsewhere, much cooler air will arrive in the Far West, but heat will build by week’s end on the High Plains.

The 6- to 10-day outlook calls for near- to above-normal temperatures nationwide, except for cooler-than-normal conditions in the Far West. Meanwhile, near- to below-normal precipitation across the majority of the U.S. will contrast with wetter-than-normal weather across the nation’s northern tier from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes region.

NOAA’s 6- to 10- Day Outlook

NOAA’s 8- to 14- Day Outlook

Windy, warmer weather oversreads the Midwest

On the Plains, very warm weather continues to promote an acceleration of fieldwork and crop development. Warmth is especially notable on the central Plains, where Tuesday’s high temperatures will again approach or reach 95°. Precipitation (showers and thunderstorms) are mostly confined to the Red River Valley.

Across the Corn Belt, cool weather lingers across Michigan and Ohio, accompanied by scattered showers. Warmer air is overspreading the remainder of the Midwest, promoting an acceleration of corn and early-season soybean planting.

In the South, Frost Advisories were in effect Tuesday morning as far south as northern and western North Carolina. Elsewhere, dry but cool weather is conducive to fieldwork operations, including cotton, peanut, rice, and soybean planting.

In the West, warm, dry weather favors fieldwork and crop growth. Planting is ahead of the normal pace for most crops, including cotton (in Arizona and California), rice (in California), and spring wheat (in Idaho and Washington).

A big warm-up underway on the Plains

On the Plains, much warmer weather accompanies scattered rain showers in the Dakotas. Elsewhere, very warm, dry weather prevails. High temperatures above 90° will be common later Monday throughout the region, even as far north as the Dakotas.

Across the Corn Belt, Frost and Freeze advisories were in effect early Monday from the Mississippi River eastward. Some of the lowest temperatures were noted in Wisconsin and Michigan, where readings below 30° were common. Freezes are a concern with respect to fruit crops in Michigan, although development was as much as 1 to 2 weeks behind normal due to persistently cool spring weather.

In the South, cool but dry weather favors planting activities and other spring fieldwork. However, scattered frost was noted this morning across the interior Southeast, including parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.

In the West, warm, dry weather favors a rapid pace of fieldwork and crop development. Slightly cooler air is just starting to overspread the Pacific Northwest, accompanied by isolated showers.

Fire Weather Outlook

There will be strong winds and a Critical Fire Weather Risk for the northern Plains areas Monday and Tuesday.

National Weather Service’s Fire Outlook Page

Severe Weather Outlook

For Monday, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the northern High Plains and especially across Montana

Yesterday’s Severe Weather Reports

Current Severe Weather Watches

Reports of Severe Weather

Storm Prediction Center

Drought improvement ahead for much of the Plains

The Drought Outlook through late-July is based primarily on short-, medium-, and long-range forecasts, initial conditions, and climatology. Several inches of rain fell in the past two weeks across portions of the Carolinas, Georgia, and parts of Florida eliminating some of the remaining areas of drought. Improvement is indicated for the continuing drought area in north-central Florida due to short-term rainfall and the approaching onset of the rainy season. Improvement is forecast across the upper Mississippi Valley and the lower Plains, due to frontal activity and/or the seasonal upswing in nocturnal thunderstorm activity. Limited drought improvement is anticipated over much of the High Plains. Drought is forecast to either develop or persist across the western contiguous U.S. as this region enters its dry season.

Drought Outlook
Palmer Drought Chart
U.S. Drought Monitor

April in Illinois was Much Wetter than Last Year

April was the 4th wettest on record for Illinois with 6.90 inches of rain, according to Illinois State Climatologist Jim Angel at the Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois. That total was 3.13 inches above the long-term average of 3.77 inches for the month.

This April easily exceeded the combined statewide rainfall totals for Illinois in May, June, and July of 2012 during the worst of the drought. The total rainfall amounts for those months in 2012 were 2.50 inches, 1.80 inches, and 1.48 inches, respectively, which led to a total of only 5.78 inches. That was 1.12 inches less than the amount of rainfall during this April alone.

A small area of southern Illinois experienced below-average rainfall in Illinois. Otherwise, the rainfall across the rest of the state was much above average. The two largest monthly totals for April were Augusta with 12.28 inches and Naperville with 11.03 inches. Several more stations reported totals in the 10-inch range.

There were two major impacts of the wet April. One was widespread flooding on the Illinois, Wabash, and Mississippi Rivers and their tributaries. Several sites along the Illinois reported record high river crests in April. Because the flooding included the Chicago area, the dollar damages and number of people affected will be quite large.

The second impact of the wet April was the delay in fieldwork. In the April 29 U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service report, only 1 percent of the corn crop was planted, compared to 76 percent last April, and a five-year average of 36 percent.

The statewide average temperature was 50.1 degrees, which was 2.3 degrees below average.

Drought intensifies in the West, eases in the East

The footprint of drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor map shifted south and west during the week that ended April 30, intensifying in southeast Colorado, New Mexico and other spots. Statistics released with the map showed a decrease in the overall area of the 48 contiguous states in moderate drought or worse, to 46.90percent, from 47.34 percent the week before, but some areas intensified. The area in severe drought or worse increased, to 32.73 percent, from 31.75 percent the area in extreme drought or worse decreased to 13.96 percent, from 14.72 percent and the area in exceptional drought increased to 3.4 percent from 2.59 percent. Drought coverage is now down 14.19 percentage points since the beginning of 2013 and down 18.55 points from the record high of 65.45 percent on September 25, 2012.

U.S. Drought Monitor

Limited fieldwork opportunities across the Corn Belt

On the Plains, dry weather is promoting fieldwork. However, mild weather across the northern High Plains contrasts with chilly conditions across the remainder of the nation’s mid-section. Freezes were noted Monday morning as far south as eastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas.

Across the Corn Belt, dry weather has returned to the upper Midwest. However, locally heavy showers are falling across the Ohio Valley, closing a window of opportunity for corn planting that lasted several days.

In the South, scattered but locally heavy rain showers are mostly confined to the interior Southeast. During the past 24 hours, parts of western North Carolina have received more than 4 inches of rain. However, generally dry weather prevails across the Deep South, from Texas to Florida.

In the West, cool weather accompanies widely scattered showers from California to the southern Rockies. In contrast, very warm, dry weather in the Northwest favors fieldwork and crop development.